The highlight this week will be US CPI on Wednesday and a resumption of trade talks between the US and China today in London. Bessent, Lutnick and Greer are set to meet Chinese representatives at the meeting today. So it's all the big guns from the US administration. DB's Jim Reid reminds us that the monthly 30-yr UST auction on Thursday will also be a heavy focus with all the attention on the long-end in recent weeks. There's a 10yr auction the day before as well. So a good test of demand as the fiscal bill meanders its way through Congress.
Before we preview the CPI release the other main highlights this week are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations today; US NFIB small business optimism, UK employment data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow; that CPI, the 10yr UST auction and the UK Spending Review on Wednesday; US PPI, US jobless claims, UK monthly GDP, the 30yr UST auction and my birthday on Thursday; and the UoM consumer sentiment (including inflation expectations) on Friday. A fuller day-by-day diary of events is at the end as usual.
With regards to US CPI, DB's US economists expect weak seasonally adjusted gas prices to again keep the headline rate (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.22% previous) gain below that of core (+0.31% vs. +0.24%). This should help the YoY rate for both headline and core to rise two-tenths to 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Shorter-term trends for core would be mixed with the three-month annualized rate rising by three-tenths to 2.4% while the six-month rate would remain steady at 3.0%. DB's economists do expect tariffs to begin to impact core goods prices, especially in categories like household furnishings and supplies where we saw potential preliminary tariff impacts in the April data. On the services side, economists will be most attuned to the volatile categories like lodging away and airline fares that have been a meaningful drag of late. For PPI the following day, our economists expect a +0.27% increase in May which would reduce the YoY rate by a couple of tenths. As ever, how the subcomponents that feed into core PCE come out will be the most interesting part of the release. Note that the Fed are now on media blackout ahead of next Wednesday's (18th) FOMC.
It's not clear that the Fed will have learnt too much more than they already knew from Friday's payrolls data. May headline (+139k vs. 147k) and private (140k vs. 146k) payrolls were slightly above the 126k consensus but -95k of net revisions to the two previous months softened the beat. We now have very stable private sector hiring trends over the past three (133k), six (146k) and twelve (122k) months. However the narrow breadth in job growth as health care / social assistance (+78k) and leisure / hospitality (+48k) continued to drive the majority of private sector job gains in May and have accounted for 75% of private job growth over the past twelve months.
Staying on employment there will be increased attention on claims this week given the recent tick up. It's not clear whether its seasonals or evidence that there is some real time slipping in employment trends.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday June 9
Tuesday June 10
Wednesday June 11
Thursday June 12
Friday June 13
* * *
Finally, looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
Monday, June 9
Tuesday, June 10
Wednesday, June 11
Thursday, June 12
Friday, June 13
Source: DB, Goldman