After a fast and furious week which saw not just key economic data but also central banks galore, fedspeak will dominate the week until we reach the core PCE number on Friday with Bostic (voter - dovish) opening up proceedings today, followed by Goolsbee (non-voter - dovish) who may give indications that he is looking for a continuation of large rate reductions. Tomorrow and Thursday, Bowman will tell us why she was the first governor to dissent at an FOMC since 2005. Kugler (voter - neutral) speaks on Wednesday and then takes part in a fireside with Collins (non-voter - dovish) on Thursday. Also on Thursday we have the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference. Powell opens it up with pre-recorded remarks with Williams (voter - dovish) and Barr (voter - dovish) also speaking. So a busy array of speakers and plenty of focus of all of them.
In terms of data, DB's Jim Reid notes that Thursday's final reading of US Q2 real GDP (expected to be unchanged at 3.0%), and the personal income and consumption report which contains the core PCE will be the main highlights. DB expect core PCE to post a +0.18% gain in August, helping the YoY rate tick up a tenth to 2.7%. The GDP report includes 5 years of revisions up to Q1 2024 so that will be an interesting curiosity that could slightly reshape how we think about this cycle. Elsewhere in the US, tomorrow's consumer confidence, Wednesday's new home sales, Thursday's durable goods orders and Friday's advance goods trade balance round out the week. The full day-by-day week ahead appears at the end as usual.
Over the weekend Olaf Scholz's SPD party has narrowly held onto first place in Brandenburg, pipping far right AfD with around 30.9% of the votes to the latter's 29.2%. This has been an SPD stronghold since unification in 1990 and the popular regional premier did distance himself from the federal government during the campaign so there is less of a read through to national politics than could be thought at first glance. There will also be some concern that this is the third regional election in a row where the AfD has come first or second with around 30% of the votes. Perhaps some tactical voting stopped them winning over the weekend? However no main party will power-share with them so at the moment there is limited implications of their current poll standings, but their rise continues to be on a broadly upward path.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday September 23
Tuesday September 24
Wednesday September 25
Thursday September 26
Friday September 27
Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and the core PCE inflation report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
Monday, September 23
Tuesday, September 24
Wednesday, September 25
Thursday, September 26
Friday, September 27
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA