After a relatively quiet week on the data front, things start to pick up again even as earnings season comes to a close.

In terms of key events, DB's Jim Reid writes that it’s hard to look too far beyond the latest core PCE print on Thursday after the recent strong CPI report and the strong relevant sub-components in the PPI. DB economists believe the MoM core print will be at 0.36% vs. 0.17% last time. This would make it the highest since last January. The fact that last January was 0.51% means that rolling out base effects should help the YoY rate edge down a tenth to 2.8%. However it's the monthly print that will be all important. Staying with inflation, preliminary CPI prints are also due from Germany and France (Thursday) and for the Eurozone (Friday).

Back to the US, we have new (today) and pending (Thursday) home sales with the focus on whether higher mortgage rates and bad weather in January has had a big impact. Then we have durable goods and consumer confidence (tomorrow), the second reading of Q4 GDP on Wednesday, the personal income and spending data (Thursday), and the ISM manufacturing data as well as unit auto sales as we close out the week by welcoming in a new month on Friday.

Friday is also the day that we could see a partial government shutdown if Congress fails to pass the 2024 budget that has already been agreed to. DB's economists think that it's possible we get a short-term continuing resolution for an extra week which would push it past the "Super Tuesday" primaries on the 5th and coincide with the deadline for the second tranche annual funding bills.

There is also a fair degree of Fed speak which you can see in the calendar at the end as usual alongside all the other data. Chinese PMIs on Friday might be the most interesting non-US data, and should include the lunar new year holidays in the sample period, so one to watch.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday February 26

Tuesday February 27

Wednesday February 28

Thursday February 29

Friday March 1

The key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Tuesday, the core PCE report on Thursday, and the ISM manufacturing report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including governors Barr, Waller, and Kugler, as well as presidents Schmid, Bostic, Collins, Williams, Goolsbee, Mester, and Daly.

Monday, February 26

Tuesday, February 27

Wednesday, February 28

Thursday, February 29

Friday, March 1

Source: DB, BofA, Goldman