All roads this week point towards the April US core PCE print on Friday which in MoM terms is expected to edge down from +0.32% to +0.26%, which would be the lowest monthly increase of 2024. As DB's Jim Reid notes, you don't need an economist to tell you how well scrutinized this data will be and how important it is to the Fed. As part of the same release, personal income (+0.4% forecast vs. +0.5% previously) and consumption (+0.2% vs. +0.8%) will likely come in a little softer.

Back to inflation, and the preliminary May CPIs are out in Germany tomorrow, and in France, Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. DB's European economists see this coming in at + 2.55% (+2.4% in April) for headline and +2.84% (+2.66% April) for core inflation. At the start of 2024, euro area inflation avoided the sizeable upside surprises we saw in the US, but the last print in April did see core inflation slightly stronger than expected. It would be a tall order for the data to derail the strongly signaled ECB cut next week but it could have important implications for the ECB’s signal beyond this. We will also have the latest inflation expectations from the ECB consumer expectations survey for April today. A DB survey suggests that median medium-term expectations are likely to stay stable at 2.5%. Finally on inflation, Tokyo CPI is also out on Friday.

Elsewhere, in the US we have consumer confidence today, the Fed Beige Book tomorrow, the second reading of GDP and the Trade Balance on Thursday with the Chicago PMI alongside the personal spending and income report (alongside core PCE) on Friday. In China, May's PMIs on Friday will be the highlight. You can see the full day-by-day week ahead at the end including all the main central bank speakers highlighted too.

In what is a busy busy year for elections, this week we have the South African election tomorrow, the last leg of the Indian elections on Saturday and the Mexican equivalent on Sunday. Note it's also less than two weeks until the European Parliamentary elections.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Tuesday May 28

Wednesday May 29

Thursday May 30

Friday May 31

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are Q1 GDP revision on Thursday and the core PCE report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including remarks from Governors Bowman and Cook, and Presidents Mester, Kashkari, Williams, Bostic, and Logan.

Tuesday, May 28

Wednesday, May 29

Thursday, May 30

Friday, May 31

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA