With earnings season now having started in earnest, and with traders closely following every development in the middle east, it looks like it will be a busy week but without an obvious focal point. There is a barrage of Fed speak before their media black-out at the weekend but Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday will be the highlight. DB's Jim Reid details who is speaking in the end of the day-by-day calendar below, but DB’s Brett Ryan’s week ahead gives a bit more detail of their various biases here (available to pro subs).
The key data point will likely be US retail sales (tomorrow) which we expect to decline (-0.1%) after two strong months, but we also have a lot of US housing data with the NAHB (tomorrow), starts/permits (Wednesday) and existing home sales (Thursday). US weekly jobless claims (Thursday) corresponds to payrolls survey week so will be used to fine tune estimates.
Staying with the US, earnings season will start to get into gear with the highlights being Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson (tomorrow), Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Netflix, ASML, and Procter & Gamble (Wednesday), TSMC (Thursday) and American Express (Friday). Tesla and Netflix probably have the most ability to move macro markets given their size.
China sees its monthly activity dump on Wednesday where signs of a turnaround will be scrutinized. This is the same day as UK inflation comes out (preview here). The UK labour market data tomorrow is interesting as unemployment is now 0.8pp above the lows at 4.3% and has increased more than anywhere else in the DM world. UK retail sales is out on Friday.
In Europe we have the ZEW survey in Germany (tomorrow) and the PPI report on Friday, with retail sales for France also due that day. With regards to German PPI it's expected to hit -14.2% YoY from -12.6% the previous month so crazy numbers historically after peaking at an even more crazy +45.8% YoY just over a year ago.
In Japan the national CPI on Friday will be the last before the October 31st BoJ meeting where YCC is likely in our opinion to be abandoned. So an important print.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day preview of the week ahead
Monday October 16
Tuesday October 17
Wednesday October 18
Thursday October 19
Friday October 20
Finally, looking at just the US, here is Goldman's preview noting that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday, and the jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reports on Thursday. The Beige Book for the November FOMC meeting period will be released on Wednesday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week including Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, Governors Bowman, Waller, and Cook, and Presidents Harker, Williams, Barkin, Goolsbee, Bostic, Logan, and Mester.
Monday, October 16
Tuesday, October 17
Wednesday, October 18
Thursday, October 19
Friday, October 20
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA