The Biden administration has really outdone itself.
With everyone - even the most hardened bulls - expecting the September jobs report to be not only the weakest of 2023 but to presage a big drop in future payrolls data, moments ago the BLS reported that in September - a month when countless companies shut down due to labor strikes (i.e., people not working) - the US added a whopping 336K jobs, the highest monthly increase since January...
... and not only double the consensus estimate of 170K, but above the highest sellside estimate of 250K!
In fact, at 336K vs a median forecast of 170K, today's print was the first 6-sigma beat of expectations in a long time.
Furthermore, having become the butt of all data goalseeking jokes in recent months after revising every single month in 2023 lower, the BLS decided to show people who is boss and revised not only August but also July higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported.
Looking at the unemployment rate, things here were not quite so good, with the rate unchanged at 3.8% from last month, above expectations of a modest drop to 3.7%, as Black unemployment increased while Hispanic unemp dropped.
Unemployment rates were as follows: adult men (3.8%), adult women (3.1%), teenagers (11.6%), Whites (3.4%), Blacks (5.7%), Asians (2.8%), and Hispanics (4.6%).
Meanwhile wage growth continued to cool, and in September average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, and resulted in a 4.2% increase YoY, down from 4.3% in August...
... as a result of a big bump in lower paying jobs.
But perhaps the most remarkable divergence in the report is that with headline payrolls surging 336K (establishment survey), the Household Survey indicated that the pain continues, as the number of people employed not only rose by less than 100K (86K to be precise), but it was all part-time workers, which increased by 151K. Full-time workers? Why, they dropped by 22K, and the lowest since February.
Some more highlights from the report:
Here is the breakdown of jobs:
While we will publish a longer reaction piece shortly, this kneejerk response stood out from Peter Tchir of Academy Securities:
Given the strength of the job market (according to the Establishment data) and the barrage of “strike” headlines, that seems somewhat surprising.... The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, as the Household survey showed decline in full-time jobs for the 3rd month in a row. Total jobs were positive for the Household survey, but driven by an increase in part-time jobs (which doesn’t seem overly consistent with a blow out jobs report).
Difficult to fight the algos which are going to drive yields higher based on the headline number, but expect, as the day goes on, for many in the markets to question the veracity of this report and for the early losses in bonds and stocks to be dramatically reduced, if not finish the day and the week in the green!
The bottom line seems to be that virtually nobody believes the goalseeked propaganda spewed by the Biden admin any more...