"Many good things may happen, but the actual occurrence remains to be seen..."

That's about as rosy a picture as one could glean from the respondents to today's Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey.

Against expectations of a small improvement from -11.3 to -10.0, the headline sentiment gauge dropped to -14.4 (the lowest end of analysts' forecasts).

Furthermore, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated declines this month.

The new orders index - a key measure of demand - dropped 17 points to -11.8 after briefly turning positive last month.

The capacity utilization index edged down five points to -5.7, and the shipments index plunged from 0.1 to -15.4.

The decline in new orders came alongside a surge in prices as raw materials costs rose to 13-month highs...

Source: Bloomberg

That has the stench of stagflation lathered all over it.

It's notr a pretty picture at all under the hood...

And worse still, the prices passed on to end-users is rising and expectations for future price-hikes are also rising...

Source: Bloomberg

But it was the respondents comments that perhaps signal the reality that so many Americans are facing...

There's a lot of uncertainty:

But some are more vocal about the real state of the union...

And finally, a direct shot at the Democratic Party agenda:

But, hey Joe, keep on telling Americans just how good they've got it!! See how that's working out for you...

Can the Democrats really gaslight their way to getting re-elected... again? With a little help from Powell, maybe.