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Zero Hedge
ZeroHedge
12 Mar 2024


NextImg:Inflation Hot: Consumer Prices Hit New Record High, Up 19% Since 'Bidenomics' Began

After January's surprised upside shift, expectations have been adjusted up over the last month for another sizable MoM move in headline CPI. But that was not enough as the 0.4% MoM rise in the headline (as expected - highest since August) lifted CPI YoY up to +3.2% (hotter than the 3.1% exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month annualized CPI rate was rose to 2.8% from 1.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.

Energy costs surged MoM as Core Services inflation slowed MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Full CPI MoM breakdown:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February, as it did the previous month.

Full CPI YoY breakdown:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months.

Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM (hotter than the +0.3% exp) and up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the +3.7% exp), but still the lowest since April 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month annualized Core CPI rate was rose to 4.1% from 3.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%.

Core Goods actually rose MoM for the first time since June 2023...

Goods deflation continues (-0.3% YoY) but has flattened out, while services inflation remains stubbornly high at +5.2% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

And one step deeper - the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index - soared 0.5% MoM up to 4.5% YoY - the hottest since May 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

While SuperCore CPI slowed MoM, there was a large jump in Transportation Services MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up 19% since Bidenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been more expensive...

Source: Bloomberg

That is an average of 5.6% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).

So, about that shrinkflation - did companies only 'get greedy' when Biden took office?

But it gets worse, real wage growth has lagged significantly for the average joe in America...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a very modest decline in Feb, Food costs are up over 21% since Biden's term began, but non-supervisory wages are up only 18%.

Bidenomics for the win!

Are we going to see a replay on the '70s?

Source: Bloomberg

The market narrative of slow and steady disinflation just broke harder.

...or are we still set for a massive wave of depressionary deflation?