If yesterday's plunge in the NAHB sentiment survey is anything to go by, this morning's starts and permits data should be a shitshow (expectations were for a modest MoM decline in both for August).

And sure enough, starts puked hard (down 11.3% MoM vs -0.9% exp). BUT... forward-looking permits soared 6.9% MoM (vs -1.1% exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

This leaves Starts (SAAR) at their lowest since June 2020 and Permits (SAAR) at their highest since Oct 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, multi-family rental starts plunged by the most since June 2020 while single-family permits rose for the 8th straight month...

Source: Bloomberg

For context...

Finally, if sentiment among homebuilders is collapsing again, why are they loading up on permits?

Source: Bloomberg

And why is construction employment still holding near its highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed see permits soaring as homebuilders betting on their dovishness and step in tomorrow to curb-stop that optimism?