Since the last FOMC meeting on June 12, gold has outperformed (while the dollar and crude oil have lagged). Stocks and bonds are also both higher...

Source: Bloomberg

US macro 'hard' data has trended weaker overall since the last FOMC (albeit with a blip)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and the 'bad news' macro data has prompted 'good news' dovish shifts in rate-cut expectations which are dramatically higher since the last FOMC (pricing more than the Fed's two cuts this year)...

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations for today's FOMC are 'nothingburger'-y with just a 2% chance of a cut implied by the market (from 100% certain at the start of the year).

Source: Bloomberg

But all eyes and ears will be on the statement (which is expected to reflect 'more confidence' in the disinflationary path) and on Powell's soothingly dovish words.

Key headlines (via Bloomberg)

Which has a hawkish bias to it compared to the market's dovishness...

Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at BBH, says:

“I think many were hoping for some sort of softening here, along the lines of ‘we have somewhat greater confidence’ but the Fed did not tip a September cut, by any stretch.

I think they will cut, but the Fed is playing its cards close to its chest. Marginally less dovish than expected.”

George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG, says the latest FOMC statement shows:

“there are enough elements that were re-written that it seems to us that there was careful consideration to how to express the start of a pivot towards easing.”

Read the full red-line below: