After years of pandemic-fueled surges and politically driven buying sprees, the U.S. gun market is sliding deeper into a downturn. With Republicans controlling both Congress and the White House, fears of sweeping federal gun bans from far-left Democrats have abated, stripping away one of the industry's most reliable sales catalysts. 

The latest July figures from the FBI show 1.94 million National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background checks, down 4.2% from July 2024. After removing permit-related checks, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) estimated 978,731 checks directly tied to gun sales, an 8.1% drop year-over-year and the first sub-million reading in six years. 

"Summer months routinely show lower background check figures than other times of the year, and we've watched as the background check figures came down from astronomical highs several years ago," Mark Oliva, public affairs officer with the NSSF, told firearms website Guns.com via an emailed response. 

Oliva noted, "There are factors that contribute to this, including relief of concern that politics would deny some from being able to exercise Second Amendment rights to purchase a firearm of one's choice and economic uncertainty."

The gun panic-buying frenzy of 2020 and 2021 was never sustainable and has since ended in a complete bust for the industry. Notably, the downturn is likely to persist through President Trump's second term, given that a pro-2A administration won't infringe on gun owners, unlike the Biden-Harris regime, which aggressively did so.

Nowhere is the gun bust more evident than in the decline of Smith & Wesson's shares: SWBI vs. NICS... 

Meanwhile, precious metals such as gold might be at an all-time high, but ammo prices are at lows...

9mm retail prices via data from Black Basin.  

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