Update (1630ET): “Well we have some very, very good news today,” Trump began his address exclaiming that “This is Liberation Day.”
“April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump says.
“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen -- we have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely.”
“In a few moments, I will sign a historic Executive Order, reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.”
Trump lays out his theory that tariffs will bring back a “golden age” for the US, a phrase he also used in his inaugural address:
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”
Trump says the reciprocal tariffs will bring “stronger competition and lower prices for consumers” in the US.
Finally, Trump announces his tariff plan details as a "Declaration Of Economic Independence"
The bottom line is that this is targeted reciprocal tariffs, NOT a broad-based 15% or more tariff slap on all products.
Additionally, Trump confirmed that the new reciprocal tariffs will begin at midnight tonight.
However, they did announce a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries (below the 15% consensus and 20% worst case) and Trump confirmed the 25% tariff on all auto imports.
Additionally, Trump said they will not be full reciprocal tariffs, then held a chart up showing the individual nation (trade-weighted average) tariff levels:
Here are some specifics:
We noticed that Mexico and Canada are not on the list.
Initially markets heard Trump's comments as 'better than expected' and futures spiked on the news, but then as he showed the chart of specific tariffs, futures plunged...
“If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America,” Trump said, concluding:
“Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies."
* * *
"This is the moment... this is the time..." Trump's Jekyll & Hyde tariff-ing plans are finally to be announced ("We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were" vs “We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore.")
As Trump discusses reciprocal tariffs (and the legacy media claims he is 'punishing allies') keep this chart in mind - does that seem like 'free trade'?
The three main things to watch for when Trump starts speaking are as follows (h/t Goldman Sachs' Brian Garrett)
Watch President Trump deliver his remarks in his 'Make America Wealth Again' event and answer questions here (due to start at 1600ET):
Update (0805ET): As the clock ticks down to today's 4pm announcement of "across the board" tariffs on a subset of nations, speculation about the size and scope of the new rules is rife with many nations already threatening "proportionate" responses:
The irony, of course, is that if Trump unveils 'reciprocal' tariffs - mirroring the tariffs being put on US exports - any retaliatory response by a foreign nation cannot be proportionate by its nature. Any response is escalatory as the US is merely 'catching up' to the tariffs being put on its own goods.
Bloomberg reports that Trump is considering three options:
1) a blanket 20% tariff on all imports;
2) a tiered system with three different rate levels;
3) a country-by-country rate model.
White House spokesperson Leavitt said new duties are effective immediately which feels less ideal vs a delayed start (no time for negotiations).
* * *
Update (8:45pm ET): With just hours to go until Trump's "Liberation day" announcement, things remain... fluid.
Trump said Monday he had made a decision “actually a long time ago,” but didn’t reveal it. Leavitt reiterated that claim, though the White House declined to weigh in on various proposals said to be under consideration. A spokesman did not immediately reply to requests for further comment Tuesday.
Other key questions swirl, like the fate of tariffs already applied to China, Canada and Mexico, and clawed back partially for the latter two. The White House has not said whether those would be replaced by Trump’s Wednesday announcement, or whether his move to exempt goods traded under the continental trade pact might also be extended somehow to the new levies. The president has also promised coming tariffs on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.
There is just over 24 hours left until President Trump unveils the specifics of his "Liberation day" from global trade barriers at 3pm on Wednesday, and with markets obsessing over what the president will and will not say, we are starting a rolling blog which will be updated for all major developments.
We begin with the known-knowns ahead of tomorrow's big reveal:
LATEST NEWS:
Reminder:
Europe:
MORGAN STANLEY ON THE RECIPROCITY PRINCIPLE (KEY TAKEAWAYS)
Mapping out current & expected tariffs on two vectors: relative level of conviction, and expected duration/potential for an off-ramp
More in the full Morgan Stanley reciprocity analysis available here to pro subs.
JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS
On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect:
Market Impact
Likely Tariff Levels (per JPMorgan)
JPM's proposed Monetization Menu:
Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish:
More in the full JPMorgan secnario analysis available here to pro subs.
WEEKEND HEADLINES
US Broader Tariffs
US Auto Tariffs
UK
France
Germany
China
LatAm
OTHER RECENT HEADLINES
28th March
27th March
26th March
24th March:
22nd March (weekend)
21st March
20th March
19th March
18th March
17th March:
13th March:
TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR)
US Tariff Policy
Canada/Mexico
China
TARIFF TIMELINE
Developing