US equity futures, global markets and European bank stocks have stabilized, rebounding off worst levels which saw Europe's brand new banking megagiant UBS plunge as much as 16% before recouping most of the losses...
... as investors digested UBS’s agreement to buy Credit Suisse as well as central bank moves to boost dollar liquidity in an effort to restore confidence in the global financial system. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 were little changed at 7:30 a.m. ET after tumbling 1% earlier. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was modestly higher, with banks and financial services still the sharpest fallers. UBS shares sank as much as 16%, while Credit Suisse sank 60%. European bank stocks pared losses with the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index down less than 1%, after after dropping as much as 6%. A gauge of Asian shares fell by more than 1%.
In premarket trading, First Republic Bank was poised to extend last week’s record loss as the US lender’s shares plunged 19% after S&P cut its credit rating again. Wells Fargo and Citigroup trimmed US premarket declines. Gold-mining stocks rallied in premarket trading on Monday, after a $3.2 billion deal between UBS and troubled lender Credit Suisse failed to calm nerves in the banking industry, knocking risk appetite. Newmont, the biggest US-listed gold miner, gains as much as 2.6%; Harmony Gold Mining +5.6%, Gold Fields +2.2%, New Gold +3.4%, Wheaton Precious Metals +1.5%, First Majestic Silver +2%, Pan American Silver +0.7%. The price of gold rose above $2,000 an ounce for the first time in a year amid safe-haven appeal. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
For those who were lucky enough to be away from their computers this weekend, this is what you missed:
Amid the endless turmoil, the KBW Bank Index plunged 28% over the past two weeks, with financials rattled by concerns over Credit Suisse as well the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and two other US lenders. Gains in tech stocks have helped support the overall market, however, as investors look for a safe haven.
"The turmoil still has at least a couple of days to play out, and only the Fed can come in and calm that,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group Holdings Plc, said on Bloomberg Television. He expects the US central bank to hike rates by 25 basis points as a pause would be interpreted by markets as a sign that the stress in banks is bigger than initially thought.
“Assuming these banking stresses do not evolve into something more serious, the European Central Bank and the Fed may perceive that they are at or near their objectives with current policy,” said Brad Tank, chief investment officer for fixed income at Neuberger Berman. “The Fed, in particular, is further along in its tightening cycle and should have more flexibility to pause — and markets are indeed pricing for 2023 fed funds rate cuts once again.”
Meanwhile, one day after he revealed his shock that stocks remain resilient and just under 4,000 despite calling for a crah for the past 3 months, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said the stress in the banking system marks what’s likely to be the beginning of a painful and “vicious” end to the bear market in US stocks, adding that the risk of a credit crunch has increased materially. The S&P 500 will remain unattractive until equity risk premium climbs to as high as 400 basis points from the current 230 level, according to the bearish strategist who two weeks ago flip-flopped briefly to bullish before getting rugpulled by the banking crisis.
European stocks are higher after reversing the negative knee-jerk reaction to the terms of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6% as gains in utilities, miners and consumer products outweigh declines in bank stocks. European oil stocks declined as investors’ concern about the potential for a global banking crisis spur broad risk aversion and drag crude prices lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 Energy index slid 1%; among oil majors, Shell declined 1.5%, TotalEnergies -1.3%, and BP -0.6%. Smaller producers also dropped with Harbour Energy falling 5.7% and Tullow Oil -7.7%. Here are the biggest European movers:
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as the UBS takeunder failed to quell investor concerns about the health of the global financial system. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.4%, reversing most of its gain from Friday, with tech and financial names among the biggest drags. Hong Kong gauges led losses in the region as financial stocks including HSBC and AIA Group fell due to worries over risky bond exposures. While the takeover of Credit Suisse is seen to reduce the immediate systemic risk for the banking sector, investors are worried over further repercussions from its bonds. Traders are also focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week.
“Even with the rescue plans over the weekend, it is hard to predict what will happen in the near future,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The measures to restore confidence in banks and to tame inflation go in opposite directions, and the dilemma is reducing risk appetite in the stock market.” China’s onshore equity benchmark erased earlier gains even after its central bank unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio late Friday. The PBOC’s announcement timing “seems to fall in line with recent global banking jitters, which suggests that the PBOC is on high alert to provide any cushion against any knock-on impact from recent turmoil,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied, erasing a decline of as much as 0.2% earlier while the Japanese yen is the best performer among the G-10’s. The New Zealand dollar is the weakest. Australia and New Zealand’s currencies flipped to losses amid souring risk sentiment.
“Traders are looking for haven assets again with bank stocks falling, and worries about CoCo bonds gaining momentum,” Mingze Wu, a foreign exchange trader at StoneX Group, said of contingent convertible bonds. “The insistence of the Swiss National Bank to make the UBS-Credit Suisse deal happen suggests the rot was deeper and greater than they might have thought, and the dollar is an obvious beneficiary of this rush to safety”
In rates, the nervous start to the trading week prompted a flight to safety, with German and UK government bonds rallying. 2-year TSY yield fell as much as 21bps to 3.63%, while its 10- year peer slid to as low as 3.29%, the lowest since September; traders bet on 15bps of Fed hikes this week but eased tightening beyond by as much as 12bps, pricing 105bps of cuts from the peak in May through to year-end. Bund futures are off their best levels but still in the green with 10-year yields down 4bps while two-year yields fall 8bps.
In commodities, oil prices fell again with West Texas Intermediate briefly plunging below $65 a barrel, as escalating investor concerns about a global banking crisis eroded appetite for risk assets including commodities. Gold steadied, after rising above $2,000 an ounce for the first time in a year.
Bitcoin remains bid and has extended comfortably above the USD 28k handle for the first time since June, though is yet to convincingly breach USD 28.5k to the upside.
There is nothing scheduled on the macro calendar today but there will be plenty of bank related newsflow.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were on the back foot amid ongoing banking sector jitters despite the announcement that UBS will take over Credit Suisse in an emergency rescue valued at CHF 3bln which would wipe out CHF 16bln of additional tier 1 bonds. ASX 200 extended its retreat from a recent break beneath 7,000 with declines led by weakness in the energy, real estate, consumer and financial sectors, although gold miners were boosted after last week’s climb in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the banking sector woes and after the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions provided little in the way of new information whereby it reiterated that the BoJ must patiently maintain monetary easing. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied with Hong Kong underperforming on broad weakness across sectors, while the mainland was kept afloat for most of the session after Friday’s surprise RRR cut by the PBoC in an effort to boost liquidity and support the economy, but opted to maintain its benchmark lending rates.
Top Asian News
European bourses are mixed/flat, as marked banking-led pressure has eased throughout the morning following the initial reaction to the UBS-Credit Suisse merger. On this, Credit Suisse and UBS opened lower by over 60% and 8% respectively, but have since eased off lows with the broader SX7P index now ~2% lower vs downside of over 5% at worst. On the merger, attention is on Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds being written off; a detail which pressured such bonds in APAC trade, with HSBC for instance a notable initial laggard on this. Since, we have seen European regulators reiterate that CET instruments are the first to absorb losses, with AT1 only required after their full use. Stateside, futures are in similar proximity to the unchanged mark given the above as participants await updates around First Republic and look ahead to the FOMC.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This weekend felt like being transported back into 2007-2008 in many respects with a race-against-time deal between UBS and Credit Suisse being put together in full view of the market. The most remarkable thing about yesterday was the huge swings in Credit Suisse AT1s on a Sunday. Clips of the $17.3bn of outstanding CS AT1 bonds seemed to trade at both ends of a mid-20s to around 70c range as the outline of the UBS deal filtered through. It was eventually a shock that the AT1s were zeroed in the deal even as UBS eventually bought CS for $3.3bn, a firmly positive number. This was however less than half what they were worth at the close on Friday and down 99% from their peak pre-GFC.
The decisions to wipe out AT1 bondholders is going to be the biggest issue medium and longer-term for the European banking sector, especially when the company was bought with a positive value yesterday. It's hard to argue with the morals of it but it will likely increase the cost of capital for banks which could lead to an additional tightening of lending conditions. So that c.$17bn of debt destruction could eventually be worth multiples of that to the wider European economy and in other regions too. Selected Asian AT1 securities are trading around 5-10% down as we type and HSBC equity is around -6% in Hong Kong so this serves as a benchmark for the European banking open.
The good news at the macro level is that the CS situation has been dealt with and there are no obvious European next shoes to drop at this stage. CS had been decoupled from the rest of the continents' banking sector for months now and therefore was by far and away the weakest link when the US regional banking woes began less than 2 weeks ago. So the market has now got to balance the reduction of systemic risk with the likely higher cost of some forms of bank capital. There will also be nervousness as to how easy it was to change laws and market conventions in order to get this deal done. Some risk premium will surely be factored in to the cost of capital for the sector now.
Meanwhile, in a coordinated global response, the Fed in a statement along with five other central banks - including the BOE, the BOJ, the ECB and the SNB - last night announced that they would enhance dollar swap lines i.e., to increase the frequency of swap line agreements from weekly to daily, beginning March 20 and will continue “at least” through the end of next month. In doing so, the central banks indicated that the move would serve as an “important backstop” amid financial market unease, thereby helping to keep credit flowing to households and businesses.
Overall, Asian equity markets have started the week on a weaker footing with the Hang Seng (-2.56%) leading losses across the region, with the Nikkei (-1.01%) and the KOSPI (-0.46%) also dipping in early trade. Elsewhere, stocks in mainland China are bucking the regional negative trend with the CSI (+0.12%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.12%) both trading slightly higher. Note their was a 25bps RRR cut on Friday.
Outside of Asia, US stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (+0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.23%) are relatively flat which helps after the weekend news but then again as you'll see from the weekly review at the end the S&P 500 was higher last week in the face of incredible turmoil elsewhere. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr US Treasuries are stable while 2yr yields (+2.92bps) briefly touched 4% before sliding back to 3.87% as we go to press.
Moving forward, it's hard not to have sympathy for the Fed this week. Any criticism of their policy should probably be more directed to the actions of 2020-2021 for keeping policy excessively too loose as government spending, money supply and inflation was surging. Today they are in a catch-22 position where the excesses of those days (and earlier) are now unravelling while inflation is still way above target. Their rate decision on Wednesday will be the undoubted non-banking related highlight of the week but we will also have the BoE meeting (Thursday), UK CPI (Wednesday), Japan CPI (Thursday), flash global PMIs (Friday) which might capture a small amount of the turmoil period, and importantly Chinese President Xi Jinping will be in Moscow from today to Wednesday.
After the FOMC, it will be the BoE's turn on Thursday to decide on rates. Our UK economists preview the meeting here and expect a final +25bps hike as well as likely dovish forward guidance amid concerns over overtightening risks. The decision will follow a host of UK inflation data released on Wednesday. Also on Thursday markets may follow the SNB meeting more closely than usual following this week's turmoil around Credit Suisse.
Aside from several monetary policy decisions, there will also be a plenty of central bank speakers, especially from the ECB, including President Lagarde (twice), following last week's +50bps hike.
In the US, aside from the PMIs investors will also get durable goods orders (DB forecast -0.5% vs -4.5% in January) on Friday and a host of regional Fed indicators throughout the week to gauge economic sentiment. Housing market data including existing home sales (tomorrow) and new home sales (Thursday) are also due.
Over in Europe, other key data will include the PPI (today) and the ZEW survey (tomorrow) for Germany, Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and UK consumer confidence and retail sales on Friday.
Moving on to Japan, the key release will be the CPI report on Thursday. Our Chief Japan Economist (full preview of the week ahead here) expects government subsidies for electricity and gas to weigh on core CPI inflation (3.2% vs +4.2% in January) but core-core CPI ex. energy to pick up 3.4% (3.2%) but reach its peak for the cycle.
Looking back on a tumultuous last week now. On Friday, with market volatility already elevated from the growing concerns around the global financial system the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey dropped -4.6pts to 63.4. That was just the second monthly drop since last June, and the lowest reading since December. The declines pre-dated the SVB collapse. If one wanted to find a positive in the report inflation expectations were lower with 5-10yr expectations down to 2.8% (2.9% expected), while the 1yr inflation expectation was 3.8% (4.1% expected). That’s the lowest 1yr expectations have been since April 2021.
That was just the last link in a chain of market moving events last week that repriced Fed futures across the curve. Expectations for a 25bps hike at the March meeting is now at just 60% with a 15.0bp hike priced in. That is down -18.3bps on the week and -4.2bps on Friday, as well as -27.8bps since Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee the week before last. At the same time, the expected terminal rate ended the week at 4.794% by the May meeting after starting the week at 5.285% at the June meeting and being as high as 5.691% at the September meeting on the prior Wednesday before the SVB news broke. Futures are also now pricing in nearly -96bps of rate cuts by year-end after starting the week with -40bps of cuts priced.
10yr Treasury yields fell back another -14.8bps on Friday and -27.0bps over the course of the week to their lowest level since early-February at 3.429%. The 2yr yield saw a much bigger move, coming down -74.9bps last week (-32.0bps on Friday) to their lowest level since September 2022. On this side of the pond, 10yr bund yields fell back -40.0bps (-18.2bps on Friday) last week to 2.108%, its lowest point since the first week of February. The 2yr bund yield fell by -71bps last week (-22.0bps Friday) in its most significant weekly down move since September 1992.
While sovereign bonds outperformed last week, US equities whipsawed with a large amount of dispersion. Even though the S&P 500 closed the five days higher, US banks continued to selloff with the KBW bank index down -14.55% last week (-5.25% Friday), with major banks like JPM (-5.87%), BofA (-8.09%), Citi (-8.46%), and GS (-7.26%) outperforming while the regional bank ETF KRE was down -14.30% last week. With CS seeing pressure from a lack of depositor and investor confidence, the SNB offered the Swiss bank a 50bn franc credit line. However this was not enough to stop the stock from ending the week -25.48% lower (-8.01% Friday), while European Banks at large were down -13.40% (-2.72% Friday) leaving the index up just +1.2% YTD. The STOXX 600 was down -3.85% week-on-week (-1.21% on Friday), whilst the CAC and DAX fell -4.09% (-1.43% on Friday) and -4.28% (-1.33% on Friday) respectively.
With risk markets selling off, credit spreads widened significantly on the week once again. The Euro Crossover HY CDS index was +66.7bps wider (+18.8bps wider Friday) and EUR IG CDS +18.1bps wider on the week (+3.8bps Friday). EUR HY CDS is now +18.9bps wider YTD, with EUR IG +9.9bps wider since the start of the year. US credit also significantly widened again as the US HY CDS index was +31.6bps wider (+26.8bps Friday) with IG +4.8bps wider following a +5.1bps move on Friday. The weekly widening has left USD HY CDS +45.7bps wider YTD, while US IG CDS was +5.8bps wider YTD.
Finally in commodities, industrial inputs sold off as recession fears rose. Brent crude fell back -11.85% (-2.32% on Friday) and WTI was down -12.96% (-2.36% on Friday), meanwhile European natural gas futures reversed the prior week’s significant rally with energy prices falling -18.92% week-on-week (-3.35%). Copper was down -3.26% (+0.72% Friday) while the overall Bloomberg Commodity index was down -1.87% (-0.16% Friday). With the risk-off tone throughout markets, Gold was a notable outperformer with the precious metal up +6.48% on the week (+3.63% Friday) in its best weekly performance since Covid to close at its highest level in a year at $1989/oz.