US equity futures are flat to end a torrid week which saw all indexes hit a fresh all-time high while the terminally anachronistic Dow Jones briefly topped 40,000. Pre-market, MegaCap Tech are mixed: AMZN +20bp, MSFT +20bp, META -22bp, GOOGL -18bp. WMT is down 27bps pre-mkt, after its +7.0% rally post-earnings yesterday. As of 7:00am S&P and Nasdaq futures are unchanged while bond yields are largely flat. Commodities are mixed: oil is lower; metals/ags are higher. Overnight, China reported mixed April macro data (IP beat, Retail Sales miss) and also announced a new rescue plan to support housing; as a result base metals rallied (Copper +2.0%; Iron Ore +1.4%). Today, key macro focus will be on comments from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly for further clues about the path for interest rates as well as the data from the leading index due at 10:00am (est -0.3%).
In premarket trading, GameStop and AMC rebounded following two sessions of losses, as the meme-stock rally shows fresh signs of life. While GameStop shares rise as much as 9.2% in premarket trading on Friday, AMC jumps as much as 9.5% — both stocks pared some of those early gains. Reddit shares rise 14% after the firm partnered with OpenAI to bring its content to the popular ChatGPT chatbot. Analysts note that this deal will boost the social media company’s data licensing business. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Friday’s tentative mood reflected a repricing of US rate cut expectations to only one reduction in 2024. Several Fed policymakers said the the central should keep borrowing costs higher for longer as they await more evidence that inflation is easing.
“The markets are now at a bit of a crossroads,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital. “With the central banks all very much in a data-dependence mode, the markets will be also adjusting expectations to each piece of relevant data that comes out.”
Investors will be tracking comments from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly due later Friday for further clues about the path for interest rates.
European stocks slid for a second day weighed down by rates-sensitive sectors such as tech and real estate as traders pared back bets for policy easing after several Fed speakers suggested interest rates should stay high for longer. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.4% but was off its worst levels, as construction, industrials and tech underperformed after ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Swap traders continue to price in three ECB rate cuts this year, with a first reduction likely next month. Luxury group Here are Europe's top movers:
Earlier in the session, property stocks in mainland China rose to the highest since November after the government announced a rescue package — its most forceful attempt yet to shore up the troubled sector. Elsewhere, Asian markets saw mild losses, though still on pace for weekly gains, as a late rally in Chinese stocks was not enough to offset weakness in tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%, to cut its weekly gains to 2.2%. Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags Friday. Benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Australia posted among the largest declines in the region.
China’s mainland shares rallied to close at their highest level since Oct. 12 after the world’s second-largest economy announced its most forceful attempt yet to shore up the beleaguered property market, easing mortgage rules and encouraging local governments to buy unsold homes from developers for conversion into affordable housing. The new measures sent a Bloomberg index of Chinese property developers to its highest level since November.
“The lowering of down-payment ratio is beyond market expectations, while scrapping the minimum mortgage rate is well expected by the market,” said Shujin Chen, head of China financial and property research at Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd. “Investors are more willing to chase property stocks on speculation of a series of upcoming supportive policies before the Third Plenary Session in July,” she said.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, but was still on track to end the week 0.5% lower after US CPI data earlier in the week cemented the view that the Fed will cut rates later this year. ING strategists say markets may have oversold the greenback following this week’s CPI and PPI data. “We still think there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker greenback just yet,” they wrote in a note. USD/JPY climbed as much as 0.4% as the Bank of Japan left the amount of debt purchases unchanged. Leveraged-currency accounts bought dollars against the yen after the BOJ kept debt purchases unchanged in its regular operations Friday following a surprise reduction on Monday, according to an Asia-based FX trader.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield inched up 1bp to 4.39%, bouncing off 4.31% hit on Thursday, its lowest in nearly six weeks. Swaps imply a 76% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, compared with 73% earlier in the week; around 44bps of cuts are priced in total through the end of the year, from around 40bps at the start of the week. Meanwhile in Europe, money markets trimmed ECB interest rate-cut wagers after policymaker Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back rate cuts.
In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range at around $79.31. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel outperforms peers. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $2,385/oz.
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APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mild losses on Wall St where the major indices pulled back after printing fresh record levels, while participants also digested mixed activity data from China. ASX 200 was pressured as losses across most industries overshadowed the gains in the mining and materials. Nikkei 225 declined but was off worst levels amid a weaker currency and after the BoJ refrained from further cutting its bond purchases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive with early outperformance in Hong Kong owing to tech strength before briefly wiping out all of its gains, while the mainland was constrained as the focus centred on a slew of data including a further deterioration in Home prices which saw the steepest monthly drop in 9 years, while activity data was mixed as Industrial Production topped forecasts but Retail Sales disappointed. Modest extension of/return of strength in the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite on the announcement of various Chinese property support measures, incl. a cut to the housing fund loan level.
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European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.2%) are mostly on the back foot, continuing the broad weakness seen in APAC trade overnight. European sectors are mostly lower; Telecoms are found at the top of the pile, building on the prior day's outperformance; Tech lags.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are flat, with price action circulating on either side of the unchanged mark.
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