US index futures are flat after notching new record highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, spurred on by a miss in the US CPI print and retail sales data on Wednesday, which also boosted bets the Federal Reserve will ease policy. That inflation data, which the market was feverishly anticipating, was inadvertently published 30 minutes early the BLS reported, raising fresh questions about how some of the world’s most sensitive economic information is released. As of 7:30am, S&P and Nasdaq futs are up 0.1% with small caps underperforming, potentially on growth fears, so it will be interesting if this morning's stronger than expected WMT earnings can ease those fears. With the main data point of the week now past, investors will turn to Fed speakers and jobless claims data for new clues on the path of interest rates. Bond yields are moving +/-1 bp as the curve twists flatter. The US dollar looks to rally for the first time this week. Commodities are higher led by base metals with copper soaring for another day because of a short squeeze on the Comex exchange. The macro data focus is on Housing Starts/Building Permits, Import/Export Prices, and Industrial Production. NVDA reports next week so may see investors begin positioning for that.
In pre-market trading, Mag7 and Semis are higher while the meme-stock craze continued to fizzle out, with GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. plunging more than 10% in the pre-market. Chubb shares jumped after Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a $6.7 billion stake in the insurer. Cisco Systems Inc. gained on a higher revenue forecast. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
On the data front, stock-market bulls will be hoping for jobless claims to give an indication of slack in the labor market that would give the Fed room to ease monetary policy. A raft of central bank officials are due to speak today as well. Investors currently expect about two rate cuts this year, according to futures markets.
"Slowdowns are not bearish equities, recessions are. I think on the body of evidence we are still miles from that. Although another rise in claims /confirmatory data from Philly Fed like we saw in Empire would keep inching us toward GDP downgrades" wrote Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky. "Now we'll trade slowdown and the SPX is taking out the highs. The mix of leadership will change and I think the NDX (secular growth proxy) which has actually lagged most things ytd has a good chance to run particularly into the end of the month"
In Europe, the Estoxx 50 trades lower by 0.2%, threatening to end a streak of ten straight day of gains as insurance and real estate stocks outperform while energy and energy and autos lag behind. Local bourses were dragged down by energy names while German industrials continue to grapple with weak demand from China. Siemens AG dropped on lowered guidance for its key digital industries unit. Italy's FTSE MIB outperforms peers while CAC 40 lags after reaching a fresh record. Traders were also watching direction from European Central Bank speakers on whether interest rates might start falling next month. So far, swap contracts have almost fully priced in the likelihood of three cuts in 2024. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
Earlier in the session, in Asia stocks also pushed toward a new peak. Shares of Chinese developers soared on optimism that Beijing will provide policy support for the purchase of unsold homes from distressed builders.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded after slipping as much as 0.3% to a five-week low; USD/JPY fell 0.1% at 154.90, after sliding as low as 153.60. The yen rose for a second day, shrugging off GDP data that showed a contraction in Japan’s economy as investors chose to focus on long dollar liquidation. JPY and CHF are the strongest performers and only gainers in G-10 FX. AUD and NOK fall the most.
In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve flatter on the day, pivoting around a near-unchanged 10-year sector as post-CPI price action consolidates around Wednesday’s session highs. US yields are cheaper by around 2bp across front-end of the curve and richer by 1bp across long-end, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2.2bp and 2bp on the day. 10-year yields are little changed on the day trading around 4.335% with the two-year yield rose 1bps to 4.73%, bouncing off 4.70% hit in earlier trading. Bunds and gilts both lagging by 1bp in the sector. Swaps imply an 86% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, compared with 73% earlier in the week; around 49bps of cuts are priced in total through the end of the year, up from around 43bps before the CPI print on Wednesday. US session focus includes data releases at 8:30am New York along with five scheduled Fed speakers.
In commodities, crude futures and spot gold are steady. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.5%, outperforming peers.
Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims, April housing starts/building permits, May New York services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, April import/export price index (8:30am) and April industrial production (9:15am). Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Barr, Barkin (10am), Harker (10:30am), Mester (12pm) and Bostic (3:50pm)
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A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the major indices rallied to fresh record highs after softer CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets. ASX 200 was led by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and tech amid a drop in yields. Nikkei 225 gained but was off today's best levels as participants digested a firmer currency, steeper-than-expected contraction in Japanese GDP and mega bank earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with developers front-running the advances in Hong Kong on return from holiday as they reacted to the recent property support proposal, while the upside was capped in the mainland amid little fresh pertinent catalysts aside from Russian President Putin arrival in China where he seeks to deepen the strategic partnership with Chinese President Xi.
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European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) are mostly lower, unable to continue the US CPI-induced gains from the prior session. Bourses initially opened marginally in the red, and continued to edge lower as the morning progressed. European sectors are mixed; Insurance is the clear outperformer, propped up by post-earning gains in Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in crude prices over the past few days. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with some of the post-CPI optimism seemingly fizzling out. Stock specifics today include Cisco (+4.5% pre-market), which beat on its top/bottom lines.
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Fixed Income
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US Event Calendar
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DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
There was the slightest hint of stagflation in what was a big day in global macro yesterday but markets were in no mood to countenance such a view as a small miss in headline CPI helped ignite a rates rally, helping the S&P 500 (+1.17%) and STOXX 600 (+0.59%) to both hit fresh all time highs. Today the highlight might be to see if last week's surprising spike in US initial jobless claims, after months of calm, was a one-off or not. Our economists think it may have been due to changes in the NY school holiday dates. We will see.
In terms of the details of the April CPI report, the headline came in at a monthly +0.3% (vs +0.4% expected). The year-on-year rate fell from +3.5% to +3.4% as expected, so it was a pretty marginal miss. Core CPI came in at +0.29% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the year-on-year rate falling to +3.6% from +3.8% (as expected). This marks the lowest annual core inflation print in two years but still at uncomfortable levels for the Fed. Digging deeper, monthly core services inflation slowed from +0.5% to +0.4%, and core goods inflation remained negative at -0.1%. A welcome development was the deceleration in shelter rents, which fell from +0.5% to +0.4%. But as markets celebrated the miss on headline CPI, core services excluding shelter, otherwise known as supercore, increased from +4.8% year-on-year in March, to +4.9% year-on-year. This measure has been rising consistently since last October in year-on-year terms, so one to watch for in the months ahead, even as the month-on-month rate slowed from +0.6% to +0.4%. Overall, our US economists see the CPI print as a step in the right direction after the hot Q1 prints, but with further progress needed over the coming months to give the Fed enough confidence to cut rates on declining inflation alone. See their full reaction here
At the same time, we also had the US retail sales data for April, which saw the headline print stagnate (0.0% vs +0.4% expected). This came alongside a slight downward revision to the March reading (from +0.7% to +0.6%). The retail control group, which feeds into GDP, fell by -0.3% (vs +0.1% expected), with the March number also revised lower. So, retail sales pointing to a slow start to Q2, with signs that US consumer spending has lost some of its momentum. Adding to this picture, the NAHB housing market index also fell below expectations, dropping from 51 to 45 (vs 50 expected). This could be a lagged response to higher mortgage rates or poor weather in the Spring. Or a combination of the two.
The ever so slightly weaker CPI print for April, coupled with the downside surprise to retail sales, saw markets raise their expectations of Fed rate cuts for 2024, with the odds of a rate cut by the September meeting rising from 50% to 61%. And markets moved back to pricing two full cuts in 2024 (+9.0bps to 52bps) for the first time since the last CPI print five weeks ago.
Given these developments, US Treasuries recorded a solid rally across the curve. 10yr yields fell -9.9bps to 4.34%, their lowest levels since early April, while at the front end 2yr yields were down -9.1bps to 4.725%. This move was led by real yields, as the 10yr real yield slipped -7.5bps, its largest decline since January. Amid the rates repricing, the broad dollar index saw its weakest session of the year so far (-0.64%). This morning in Asia, 10yr US yields are another 2bps lower.
The rates rally echoed across the globe, as investors moved to bring forward the probability of rate cuts from other central banks. Pricing of a June ECB cut rose from 92% to 98%, with 75bps of cuts now priced by year-end (+7.0bps on the day). Prospects of a June cut were also reaffirmed by the latest ECB commentary, with France’s Villeroy stating it was “very likely [the ECB will] start cutting rates in June”, and Estonia’s Muller commenting that a “rate cut in June is very probable”. Similarly, for the Bank of England, the chance of a 25bps cut in June rose from 55% to 60%, and for the Bank of Canada it rose from 39% to 48%. European sovereign bond yields had already been trading several basis points lower on the day prior to the US data and extended their decline thereafter. Yields on 10yr bunds (-12.5bps) posted their largest decline since August, with OATs (-13.2bps), BTPs (-15.3bps) and gilts (-10.8bps) all also outperforming US fixed income.
With the respite in the streak of upside surprises to headline inflation at least, US equities advanced as the S&P 500 gained +1.17% to a new all-time high of 5,308. All but one of the S&P 500 sectors were in the green, with information technology leading the charge after rising +2.29%. The NASDAQ (+1.40%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.16%) both also posted new record highs. But the gains were also enjoyed more broadly, as the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose +1.14% to its highest level since late March. The positive sentiment saw the VIX volatility index decline -1.0 points to 12.45, its lowest level since early January. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 increased +0.59%, which marks its 9th consecutive advance, and another all-time high.
In our new regular meme-stock corner, GameStop (-18.87%) slumped after an astonishing start to the week. There were also declines for other meme-stock names that had seen sizeable gains over the previous two days, including AMC Entertainment (-20.00%) and Hertz (-8.67%).
Overnight in Asia the risk rally continues with the Hang Seng (+1.59%) leading gains after returning from a holiday with the Nikkei (+0.80%) also trading notably higher. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.70%) is also catching up after a holiday with the CSI (+0.53%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.43%) also advancing but have lagged their global peers this week. S&P 500 (+0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.20%) futures continue to edge higher.
Early morning data showed that Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, shrinking at an annual rate of -2.0% (v/s -1.2% expected) as consumption and exports declined. This will complicate the debate for the BoJ although with the Dollar fall, the Yen is rallying. This time yesterday we were at 156.5 and we're now at around 153.8.
Elsewhere, Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly advanced to +4.1% in April (v/s +3.9% expected) as against an upwardly revised +3.9% for March, thus reducing the possibility of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The economy added a net 38,500 positions in April with full-time roles down 6,100 while part-time positions rose 44,600. The participation rate ticked higher to 66.7% in April from 66.6% in March. Following the data release, yields on the 10yr government bonds fell sharply (-12.8bps on the day) to trade at 4.19% while the policy-sensitive 2yr bond yields has moved -11.1bps lower to 3.91% as I type.
Now to the day ahead, and data releases include the US April industrial production, import and export indices, housing starts, capacity utilization, building permits, the May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, the New York Fed Services business activity, and initial jobless claims. Outside the US, we have the Italy March trade balance. From central banks, we will hear from the Fed’s Harker, Bostic and Mester, the ECB’s Panetta, De Cos, Nagel and Villeroy, as well as the ECB’s financial stability review. We will also hear from the BoE’s Greene. Earnings results include Walmart, Applied Materials, Deere, and Take-Two