US futures are trading modestly in positive territory and just shy of all time highs, after swinging between gains and losses as Europe trades higher and Asia closed weaker after US markets shrugged of a higher core CPI print and focused on the more constructive disinflation components (Super core 47bps vs 85bps). As of 7:50am, S&P futures traded +0.1% while Nasdaq futures were modestly red; earlier, Germany's DAX hit 18K for first time, while EuroStoxx50 hit 5K for first time in 24 years.
Overnight newsflow was relatively quiet outside of early results from Japan’s wage negotiations which showed majority of companies agreeing to unions demands: previously, BOJ's Ueda said wage negotiations were critical in deciding when to phase out its big stimulus program while Japan PM Kishida noted in Parliament that Japan has not emerged out of deflation, pushing back some expectations of BOJ exiting negative rates next week. UK Jan Industrial Production printed softer, Jan GPD/Manf Production in-line, and EZ Industrial Production printed weaker as well. Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, setting up a combative election race with President Joe Biden. Elsewhere, US TSY 10Y yields are trading 1bp higher at 4.17% while bond yields across Europe ticked lower; the Bloomberg dollar index is fractionally lower, WTI crude is +$1.05 at $78.65, and bitcoin just hit a new all time high above $73,000.
In premarket trading, Nvidia shares rose again after the chipmaker rallied 7.2% and added $153 billion in market value on Tuesday. Tesla slipped after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to underweight from equal-weight. Dollar Tree slumped after reporting fourth-quarter sales and profit that missed Wall Street’s expectations. The retailer also announced plans to close about 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of the fiscal year.
Traders held onto Fed rate cut bets for this year even after US inflation came in higher than expected on Tuesday. Futures are pricing in nearly 70% odds that the central bank will start easing in June and enact at least three quarter-point cuts over the course of 2024. Policymakers next gather March 19-20, where investors will key into the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly forecasts for rates, including whether fresh employment and inflation figures have prompted any changes.
“It’s going to be hard for the Fed not to be hawkish in the next meeting as the fight against inflation clearly isn’t won yet,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at wealth manager St. James’s Place. “That print does make you sit up and be alert of the risk inflation remain stubbornly high and that has massive feed-across right across portfolios. Markets may be underestimating impact of sticky inflation as they are still aggressively pricing a June rate cut.”
European stocks rise with the Stoxx 600 hovering near a record high and the Stoxx 50 breaching 5,000 for the first time in 24 years. Retail shares are leading gains after positive updates from Zalando and Inditex. Utilities and banks also outperform. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:
The European Central Bank is also poised to start rate cuts soon, with Governing Council member Martins Kazaks saying on Wednesday reductions could come “within the next few meetings.” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said borrowing costs may be cut in the spring, with June more likely than April for a first move.
In FX, the Bloomberg Spot Index slips to reverse modest earlier gains while the yen was the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% versus the greenback to 148.05; the krone led G-10 gains. “BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly indicated yesterday that wages were the last piece of information needed before the central bank could decide whether to end its negative interest rate policy next week, said David Forrester, a senior FX strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Singapore. “So the partial tally of the spring wage negotiations this Friday will be a decisive factor for the BOJ and the JPY in the coming week.” The pound was flat.
In rates, treasuries edged lower, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 4.16%. Gilts fall after data showed the UK economy rebounded in January. UK 10-year yields rise 2bps to 3.96%. Gilts lag across core European rates as market digests an offering of 30-year inflation-linked debt and a wave of domestic data. US session includes 30-year bond reopening, following soft reception for Tuesday’s 10-year sale. Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22b 30-year bond reopening after $39b 10-year reopening tailed by 0.9bp, while Monday’s 3-year new issue stopped through by 1.3bp. WI 30-year yield at ~4.320% is roughly 4bp richer than February refunding, which stopped through by 2bp in a strong auction
In commodities, oil advanced after four days of losses as an industry report pointed to shrinking US crude stockpiles, offsetting wavering OPEC cuts. WTI rose 1.5% to trade near $78.70. Spot gold adds 0.2%. and trades near all time highs.
Bitcoin rises 3% to a record high above $73,000 with Ethereum (+2.7%) also catching wind.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone and Stournaras. And in the US, there’s a 30yr Treasury auction taking place.
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APAC stocks traded mixed as early momentum from the tech-led gains on Wall St was offset by Chinese developer default concerns and as participants digested Japanese wage hike announcements. ASX 200 was led higher by consumer stocks after China's MOFCOM released an interim proposal to remove tariffs on Australian wine although the advances in the index were limited by losses in the mining sector as iron ore prices continued to tumble. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with initial strength reversed amid firm wage hike announcements. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied and price action was contained within relatively narrow ranges with the Hong Kong benchmark kept afloat by strength in auto names and tech, while the mainland was pressured amid developer default fears and with the US House set to vote later on the TikTok crackdown bill.
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European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.2%), are modestly firmer, though with overall trade rangebound in what has been an uneventful session. The IBEX 35 (+1.3%) outperforms, led higher by post-earning strength in Inditex (+4.2%). European sectors are mixed; Retail outperforms, propped up by gains in Zalando (+13.5%) and Inditex. Autos is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by a poor Volkswagen (-0.8%) update. US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.2%, RTY +0.1%) are trading around the unchanged mark, with slight underperformance in the NQ, paring back some of the strength seen in the prior session.
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DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Next stop on the global tour is Singapore as I'm about to board the plane from Melbourne here this evening. My vaguely fascinating fact about Singapore is that my grandfather was a civil engineer there in the 1920s and 1930s and helped build much of its rapid development at the time. He was Scottish and met my Dutch grandmother there and got married without speaking each other's language and being able to understand each other. My wife says she's done the same thing! His brother owned a very successful industrial company on the island and lost all his wealth and his company after the 1929 stock market crash. My entire family were eventually left penniless after the 1930s crash and then WWII. 90 years later and my kids have had the same impact on me!
I'm looking forward to landing in the pretty standard 35 degree heat that Singapore always seems to have on landing. Talking of the heat, even with another hot US inflation print, risk assets put in another strong performance yesterday, with both the S&P 500 (+1.12%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+1.00%) driven by strong tech gains (sound familiar?). The highs in the main indices came despite the latest US CPI report for February, which saw inflation come in strongly for a second month running, and led to growing fears that the last phase of getting inflation back to target would be the hardest. But despite the persistence of inflation, investors were remarkably unphased for the most part, and they continue to see a June rate cut as the most likely outcome.
In terms of the details of the report, headline CPI came in at a 6-month high of +0.44%, which meant the year-on-year measure actually ticked up a bit to +3.2% (vs. +3.1% expected). Alongside that, core CPI was at +0.36%, which also meant annual core CPI was also above expectations at +3.8% (vs. +3.7% expected). Some of the blame was placed on shelter inflation, which was up by a monthly +0.43%. But even if you looked at core CPI excluding shelter, it was still up by +0.30%, so it’s difficult to say that shelter was the whole story behind the ongoing persistence. See our US economists’ reaction to the print here.
For the Fed, there must be some concern even if markets show little of this. For instance, if you look at core CPI on a 3-month annualised basis, it rose to +4.2%, so it’s getting harder to explain this away as just one month of bad data. Bear in mind that this is pretty high by historic standards as well, and apart from the post-Covid inflation, 3m core CPI hasn’t been that high since 1991. Alongside that, there was evidence that the inflation was coming from the stickier categories in the consumer basket. In fact the Atlanta Fed’s sticky CPI series is now up by +5.1% on a 3m annualised basis, the fastest it’s been since April 2023. So the concern for markets will be that inflation is showing some signs of rebounding, or at the very least stabilising at above-target levels.
When it comes to the Fed, the report led investors to dial back the rate cuts priced this year by -6.1bps, and futures now see 85bps of cuts by the December meeting. There was also a bit more doubt creeping into the chance of a cut by June, with 78% now priced in, down from 86% the previous day. But even with this slightly hawkish repricing, June is still considered the most likely timing for the first cut, which helped to support risk assets even though the print was above expectations. For the Fed, the most important question now will be how this affects the PCE measure of inflation, which is what they officially target. We won’t find that out until March 29th (Good Friday), but we should get a bit more info from the PPI report tomorrow, which has several components that feed into PCE.
The report led to a selloff for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield (+5.0bps) up to 4.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (+5.4bps) rose to 4.15%. The 10yr yield had peaked at 4.17% intra-day shortly after the latest 10yr Treasury auction which saw slightly soft demand, with bonds issued +0.9bps above the pre-sale yield.
The fixed income selloff was echoed in Europe too, even if the overall performance was better there, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.7bps) and OATs (+1.6bps) rising by a smaller amount. At the same time, markets remain confident of an ECB cut by June (priced at 91% vs 95% the day before). This is consistent with the latest ECB commentary, with Austria’s Holzmann (strong hawk) saying that a June cut was more likely than April, while France’s Villeroy suggested that “there’s a very broad agreement” to cut rates by the June meeting.
Yesterday’s main outperformer in the rates space were 10yr gilts (-2.5bps), which came after the UK labour market data was a bit weaker than expected over the three months to January. Notably, wage growth slowed to an 18-month low of +5.6% (vs. +5.7 expected), and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% (vs. 3.8% expected).
Although sovereign bonds struggled yesterday for the most part, there was a much better performance for equities. In the US, the S&P 500 (+1.12%) closed at a new record, with tech stocks and the Magnificent 7 (+2.88%) leading the advance. Nvidia was +7.16% higher. Likewise in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.00%) hit an all-time high, and there were new records for the DAX (+1.23%) and the CAC 40 (+0.84%) as well. That said, gains more moderate outside of tech, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 up by +0.26%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.02%) narrowly lost ground for a 3rd consecutive day.
This backdrop was mostly positive for other risk assets. US HY credit spread fell -6bps, closing just 3bps above their 2-year low reached in late February. Meanwhile, Bitcoin posted a new intra-day high just shy of $73,000, surpassing the market cap of silver. Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace's new report this morning discusses the upcoming halving event's impact on Bitcoin prices, along with the Dencun upgrade scheduled for Ethereum today (link here).
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.26%) and the KOSPI (+0.11%) edging higher while the Nikkei (-0.36%) continues to drift back from last week's all time highs. Elsewhere, stocks in mainland China are also seeing losses with the CSI (-0.59%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.26%) dragged lower by property developers as Country Garden Holdings Co. missed a 96-million-yuan ($13 million) coupon payment on a yuan bond for the first time. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are struggling to gain momentum with those on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.06%) flat. In early morning data, the unemployment rate in South Korea unexpectedly dropped to +2.6% in February from January's 3.0% level (v/s +3.0% consensus expectation).
Although the CPI release was the main data focus yesterday, there was also the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US. That f ell to a 9-month low in February of 89.4 (vs. 90.5 expected). And there were also further signs of softening in the labour market, as the share planning to increase employment was down to a net +12, the lowest since May 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Likewise, the share of firms with positions they weren’t able to fill hit a three-year low of 37%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone and Stournaras. And in the US, there’s a 30yr Treasury auction taking place.