US futures are flat as we start a new week and inch closer to the debt ceiling x-date: as a reminder, according to Janet Yellen the US could be in default in just 10 days. At 8:00am ET , S&P futures were up 0.1%, near session highs, after trading in a narrow range overnight; the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pressured by losses on semiconductor stocks after China said products from Micron Technology had failed a cybersecurity review. Micron shares dropped more than 5% in New York premarket trading, dragging down other chipmakers, including Nvidia and Qualcomm. Asian markets are higher, while European stocks trade near session lows. Bond yields are higher, rebounding from session lows, while the USD is slightly in the green with commodities also erasing earlier losses. MegaCap Tech names are up slightly pre-market. McCarthy and Biden spoke on Sunday and will resume negotiations today. Fed’s Kashkari, a Fed dove turned hawk (and soon to turn dove again) is now open to holding rates steady in June; OIS now sees more than 80% odds of a pause at the June mtg. Biden expected ties with China to improve very shortly and considers lifting sanctions on Chinese Defense Minister.
In premarket trading, Micron dropped 4.3%, leading fellow US semiconductor stocks, lower, after China said that the memory- chipmaker’s products have failed to pass a cybersecurity review in the country and banned it as a supplier. Meta Platforms fell more than 1.5%, after being hit with a record €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) European Union privacy fine. Apple slipped 1% as Loop Capital downgrades to hold, saying it sees a revenue downside risk. WeWork gained 4.8% as the beleaguered real estate company recouped some of the declines from last week’s four-session losing streak; for context it is trading at 22 cents a share. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
The question for investors is whether US politicians will be able to reach a deal to raise the debt limit before the government runs out of money. Stocks gave up gains late on Friday after Republicans temporarily walked out. The urgency of the situation was underscored on Sunday by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said the chances are “quite low” that the US can pay all its bills by mid-June.
“There is a lot of showmanship around the debt ceiling,” said Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “The closer we get to June 1 without a resolution, the greater the risk of an accident so there is a lot of potential for markets to get concerned."
The debt-ceiling risks as well as concern for the US economy have induced investors to boost bearish positions on the S&P 500 to the highest since 2007.
European stocks are lower as investors remain hesitant amid the ongoing US debt-ceiling negotiations. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3%, trading near session lows with telecommunication and utilities the best-performing sectors. Greek markets were a bright spot after Sunday’s national election resulted in a strong showing for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, signaling that investment-friendly policies will continue. Here are the most notable European movers:
The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange General Index jumped to its highest level in almost a decade. The premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt compared with super-safe bonds of Germany, fell to the lowest in more than a year while the cost of insuring exposure to Greek debt fell sharply, according to data from S&P Markit.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed higher by 0.7% for the day. A sub-gauge for technology stocks gained 2.2%, its biggest jump since March 31, tracking similar gains in peers in Asia and the US. Metal stocks surged after US President Joe Biden hinted at improving ties with China, which lifted outlook for the sector. Investors are keen to see however on how China’s economy is faring after its knee-jerk rebound following the removal of Covid curbs. Iron ore futures dropped for the third day in a row on signs of disappointing steel demand from the construction sector, while the most recent batch of industrial and retail sales data was unexpectedly soft.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% while the Swiss franc is the clear outperformer among the G-10s, rising 0.5% versus the greenback. The Aussie dollar is the weakest.
Money markets bet on 5bps of Fed tightening in June but add to easing wagers beyond after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Dow Jones that he may support holding interest rates at current levels in June. His comments echoed remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that gave a clear signal he is inclined to pause interest-rate increases next month. “Cracks may be showing in the FOMC’s rate hike path, and markets are pricing the new information in,” said Mingze Wu, an FX trader at StoneX Group.
In rates, treasuries are flat with the US 10-year yield unchanged at 3.67%, with yields rising modestly from session lows of 3.65%; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are steeper by ~1bp. Bunds and gilts are also in the green. Sentiment continues to take cues from debt-ceiling negotiations, with President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy planning to meet Monday. On Sunday, Secretary Janet Yellen said the chances are “quite low” that the US can pay all its bills by mid-June. IG issuance slate includes NWB 5Y SOFR; expectations are for $15b to $20b in new bond sales this week, concentrated on Monday. Treasury auctions this week include 2-, 5- and 7-year sales over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Three-month dollar Libor -1.80bp at 5.37471%.
In commodities, crude futures are little changed with WTI trading near $71.55. Spot gold rises 0.1% to around $1,980
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged trading around $27K, as specifics remain somewhat light and the broader markets focus on a number of moving parts but primarily the US debt ceiling, with Biden and McCarthy to speak today at some point.
There is nothing on today's economic calendar, later this week we get the latest FOMC minutes release, revisions to 2Q GDP and the PCE deflator.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
China said it uncovered “relatively serious” cybersecurity risks in Micron products sold in the country, and warned makers of key infrastructure to avoid using the company’s memory chips. BBG
The EU has said the bloc will push ahead with plans to jointly buy hydrogen and critical raw materials after its first attempt at aggregated gas purchases was oversubscribed. FT
China left its 5 and 1-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged, a move that was widely expected. RTRS
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy suggested his country was losing control of Bakhmut after months of fierce fighting but downplayed Russian claims it now fully occupied the eastern city. BBG
G-7 leaders struggled to win over swing nations being courted by China and Russia at a weekend summit in Japan. A surprise visit from Volodymyr Zelenskiy gave him a chance to appeal to those who've been neutral on the war. He met with India's Narendra Modi and Indonesia's Joko Widodo, but a meeting with Brazil's Lula da Silva fell through. BBG
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit. BBG
Auto inventory levels are back on the rise following years of shortages thanks to normalizing supply chain conditions and improved production. WSJ
Fed now seen cutting rates in Q1:24 instead of Q4:23 according to an updated survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). RTRS
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he is open to doing nothing at the June meeting given that inflation is coming down and amid all the bank uncertainty, but opposes any declaration stating rate hikes are definitively done. WSJ
Outflows from US equities, inflows to other assets. Cash, Bonds, and non-US stocks offer compelling alternatives to US stocks...
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with price action rangebound amid cautiousness as the debt limit deadline draws closer and following last week’s more balanced comments from Fed Chair Powell. ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in financials although losses were cushioned amid the improving trade environment between Australia and its largest trading partner as evidenced by an 89% rise in coal exports to China. Nikkei 225 was indecisive as the momentum from its recent rally to 33-year highs initially waned and with the mood also clouded by the surprise contraction in Machinery Orders, although the index later caught a second wind and broke above the 31,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher albeit with the mainland choppy after mixed commentary from the G7 and frictions related to China’s ban on Micron from key infrastructure, while the PBoC provided no surprises and kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged with the 1-year and 5-year LPRs kept at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
Top Asian News
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% with the focus on upcoming debt ceiling discussions amid numerous broader incremental updates/developments ahead of Central Bank speak. Sectors are similarly mixed and lacking in breadth while Ryanair and Volvo are bolstered post earnings and a sizeable truck order respectively. Stateside, futures are contained but diverging slightly with the ES & NQ under modest pressure given the below Meta update and attention on Micron (-6.2% pre-market) after China's cyberspace review (see APAC section); conversely, the RTY is holding just above the neutral mark. Meta (META) has been fined USD 1.3bln over data transfers to the US. Initially reported via the WSJ and subsequently confirmed by the IDPC. Meta -0.8% in pre-market. Subsequently, Meta says it will appeal the fine and there is no immediate disruption to Facebook within Europe. JPMorgan (JPM) raises FY23 Net Interest Income view to USD 84.0bln ex-CIB markets (prev. it was guiding for USD 81bln, market-dependent).
Top European News
FX
Commodities
Fixed Income
Geopolitics
G7
US Event Calendar
Central Bank Speakers
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This morning Head of DB Research David Folkerts-Landau has launched our AI week on my Thematic team with a 2-3 pager on why the AI hype cycle is in overdrive but why it's (mostly) justified. Three things are different this time: the general nature of the technology, the low barriers to entry and the unprecedented speed of adoption. This will lead to waves of repercussions for society, and if harnessed correctly, productivity gains. See David's intro to the series here. Henry and I will be publishing the first full note in the series later this morning looking at what history tells us about what major technological advancements over the last few centuries have meant for jobs. In every technological cycle there are always fears of human labour being extremely vulnerable. This time is no different, but history suggests a different outcome. Look out for our piece later. I'll highlight it in my CoTD later.
Moving onto this week, clearly the debt ceiling will dominate. The latest is that President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet at the White House today to resume negotiations. There was a slightly more positive tone from both sides after a phone call between the two yesterday. This follows the GOP walking out on talks late Friday. Yellen said over the weekend that the chances that the US can pay its bills by mid-June are "quite low".
Outside of this story, the highlights for the week ahead include the global flash PMIs tomorrow and the US PCE inflation release on Friday. The details of the University of Michigan Survey the same day are going to be interesting as 5-10yr inflation expectations spiked from 2.9% to 3.2% earlier this month in the prelim reading, a level that hasn't been exceeded since 2007. This often gets revised down in the final print but if not, it could mark a firming of inflation at the consumer level. Watch for any upward revisions to Q1 US GDP on Thursday after recent better than expected data. Also on the data front we have UK inflation on Wednesday (last month shocked to the upside at 10.1% - 8.2% expected this week), various sentiment data in Europe and the Tokyo CPI in Japan on Friday.
From central banks, as the June FOMC slowly comes into view and with an increasing possibility of a hike that was all but ruled out 1-2 weeks ago, there are lots of Fed speakers, especially early in the week (see in the calendar at the end), and also the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This might help show how high the bar is for the Fed to add more hikes.
Although earnings season is drawing to a close, Nvidia on Wednesday could be worth watching. Nvidia is up +112% in 2023 and has a market cap of $773bn highlighting why AI is becoming a huge topic and one that also moves macro markets. Nvidia is trading on heroic valuations which time will tell if they are justified.
The day by day weekly calendar is at the end as usual for a fuller list of what's coming up.
Asian equity markets have shrugged off Friday’s GOP talks walkout losses on Wall Street following comments by President Biden during the G-7 summit that he sees US-China relations improving “very shortly”. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.32%) is leading gains with the KOSPI (+0.83%), the CSI (+0.39%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and the Nikkei (+0.10%) also up. S&P 500 futures (-0.03%) are trading just below flat with 10yr USTs -2.3bps lower, trading at 3.65%, as we go to press.
Early morning data showed that Japanese core machinery orders unexpectedly dropped -3.9% m/m in March (v/s +0.4% expected, -4.5% in February), contracting for the second month in a row. Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept their benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month, keeping the one-year loan prime rate intact at 3.65% while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was also held at 4.3%, as expected.
Looking at last week now and there were a number of fascinating themes. For most of the week there was growing optimism that US leaders were getting closer to reaching a deal on the US debt ceiling. However, on Friday, debt limit talks hit a wall as the GOP negotiators walked out on negotiations. This turn in events erased some of the earlier positive sentiment, and the x-date sensitive 1M T-bills sold off, with yields rising +2.6bps on Friday to 5.325%, leaving 1M yields down -9.5bps on the week. At one point Friday, 1M yields rose as much as +10.8bps to over 5.40% before coming back in over the last two hours of trading.
This all came while Chairman Powell stated in a speech on Friday that “rates may not need to rise as high given credit stress”, with the Fed to remain data dependent. In his prepared remarks he noted that “we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments,” which seemed to indicate a pause in June is the most likely scenario. This was in some contrast to the more hawkish sentiment that came from Fed speak earlier in the week. Turning back to the banking sector, CNN reported that Treasury Secretary Yellen told bank CEOs that more mergers of large lenders may be needed looking ahead as sector stress continues.
Off the back of all this, the Fed rate priced in for June’s meeting by Fed fund futures fell back -4.3bps to 5.124% on Friday, although remained +2.6bps up on the week. The expected rate for July also slipped -1.0bps on Powell’s comments but gained +12.8bps in weekly terms, with markets seeing a Fed pause increasingly on the cards but not a July cut anymore. There was a -1.1bps fall for the expected rate for the final meeting of the year in December, but it was up +25.3bps on the week, pricing in -48.9bps of rate cuts by year end.
Against this backdrop, US fixed income whipsawed on Friday, with US 10yr yields down at the open before gaining +2.7bps to 3.673% after news on the debt ceiling, and up +21.0bps on the week, its greatest weekly increase since the week before last Christmas. US 30yr yields also climbed +2.3bps on Friday, up +13.8bps in weekly terms. The more policy sensitive 2yr yields traded largely flat on Powell’s comments, up +1.4bps on Friday, and +27.9bps in weekly terms. 10yr bund yields fell back -1.8bps on Friday, but were likewise up +15.1bps week-on-week.
With these developments, a risk-off sentiment weighed on US equity markets on Friday. The S&P 500 fell back -0.14% on Friday, although earlier gains left the index up +1.65% week-on-week. The NASDAQ slipped -0.24% on Friday but gained +3.04% last week as the tech sector outperformed. The likes of NVIDIA, Tesla and Meta were up +10.32%, +7.24% and +5.06% week-on-week respectively. Renewed concerns over banking sector stresses following earlier comments from Powell and Yellen saw the S&P 500 banks -0.71% on Friday (+4.63% on the week). The regional banking KBW index also fell -0.98% but was up +5.81% week-on-week after strong risk-on sentiment earlier in the week.
Over in Europe, markets finished the week up, with the STOXX gaining +0.72% on the week (+0.66% on Friday). The German Dax closed up +2.27% week-on-week (+0.69% on Friday) to all-time highs, its largest weekly up-move since before the mid-March banking stress.
Finally, turning to commodities, oil saw its best week since early April, breaking its four-week streak of weekly losses, as risk sentiment improved following debt ceiling reassurances from the White House. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, had also disrupted oil output, adding tightness to supply. Brent crude gained +1.90% on a weekly basis (-0.37% on Friday), up to $75.58/bbl. WTI crude gained +2.16% last week despite the pullback (-0.43%) on Friday.