S&P futures are marginally higher on the day, reversing an earlier loss driven by modestly higher yields after Japan’s 40-year auction sale Wednesday was met with the weakest demand since July, even if it was far more solid than last week's 20Y yearh JGB auction. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index jumped 2% in the previous session; Nasdaq futures rise 0.2%. Premarket, with NVDA rising 1% ahead of tonight’s earnings; the balance of Mag7 names are seeing slight weakness and Defensives are outperforming Cyclicals. Europe's Estoxx 50 trades slightly lower with losses led by health care and consumer staples sectors. European stocks dropped 0.3% with losses led by health care and consumer staples sectors, while Asian markets were steady as weakness in Chinese tech firms tempered gains in semiconductor shares. The 10Y yield is flat, erasing some modest earlier gains with a weaker JGB auction being credited for weakness in the global bond market. USD is flat helping commodities catch a bid where Energy and Precious Metals are pushing the group higher. Today’s macro data focus will be on Fed Minutes and the 5Y bond auction; but today is only about NVDA and then near-term market direction.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed: Nvidia +0.6% ahead of earnings with the other six mostly in the green (Alphabet +0.3%, Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.09%, Microsoft -0.08%, Meta Platforms is flat). Booz Allen slips 2% as Goldman Sachs cut its rating to sell, citing limited revenue and earnings growth in the medium term as federal civilian agency budgets are under pressure. Okta (OKTA) slumps 10% after the cybersecurity company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Today we get what may be the most important earnings report this quarter, when AI-vanguard Nvidia reports earnings after the close. In a year in which Trump’s tariff war has spurred significant market volatility, there’s high anticipation around the AI-bellwether’s earnings; the chipmaker’s blistering multi-year rally has already faced scrutiny over whether massive investment in AI is justified and as its products have gotten caught up in US-China trade acrimony.
“Nvidia earnings are going to be really significant,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place in London. “The fact that macro investors now look at Nvidia as an event shows just how big that company has become.”
Good results from Nvidia could unleash some of the $7 trillion parked in cash and spur stocks higher. But the setup is challenging, with Nvidia close to overbought territory and possible complications in the numbers.
Besides Nvidia, all eyes were on today's ultra long-dated 40Y auction in Japan, which drew the weakest demand since July but was stronger than last week's catastrophic 20Y auction. Japan's 30-year yield jumped 10 basis points following the auction. The poor reception sent Japanese longer-dated bonds sliding on Wednesday, prompting similar moves in US and European fixed income markets. US Treasuries of the same maturity snapped three days of gains, with the yield rising three basis points to 4.98%, before erasing the move. UK and German 30-year borrowing costs also climbed 3 bps, but the move was largely reversed.
As the turnaround in stocks from April’s lows shows signs of stalling, investor exposure to equities remains low enough that the “path of least resistance” is higher, according to strategists at Barclays. Institutional investors weren’t a big part of the stock rebound in May, with positioning remaining broadly underweight. Absent a volatility shock, “systematic buying could continue to help equities to grind higher,” the team led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note.
“Unless fundamental concerns about further yield increases — driven by supply-demand imbalances and expectations for fiscal expansion — are resolved, this is not the right timing to engage in outright purchases or flattener trades,” said Miki Den, a senior rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% with underperformance seen in health care, retail and technology names. Here are the most notable European movers:
Earlier in the session, Asian equities were steady as weakness in Chinese tech firms tempered gains in semiconductor shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after rising as much as 0.6%. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC gained ahead of Nvidia’s earnings after the US close on Wednesday. Shares of Tencent Holdings and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the regional gauge. “We expect choppy markets over the summer, as several risk events are on the calendar,” Chetan Seth, Asia strategist at Nomura Holdings, wrote in a note. The brokerage sees “limited upside” for Asia ex-Japan equities but slightly raised MSCI Asia ex-Japan end-2025 target to 772 from 754. While a weaker dollar and President Donald Trump’s policies have bolstered inflows into the region, Asian economies still face the prospects of high tariffs if individual countries fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Persistent worries over a slowdown in the world’s largest economy also weigh on sentiment.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1% trading close to its lowest levels since 2023. The currency has slumped more than 7% this year on the back of a retreat from US assets. The kiwi is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.4% against the greenback after the RBNZ signaled interest rates are now close to neutral.
In rates, treasuries are cheaper across the curve, with losses led by the long-end following similar price action across core European rates, leaving 2s10s around session highs leading into the early US session. Long-end remains in focus, after Japan’s 40-year auction sale Wednesday was met with the weakest demand since July. US yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by around 1bp on the day, unwinding a portion of Tuesday’s flattening move. US 10-year yields trade flat around 4.45%, reversing an earlier rise of 3bps, with gilts lagging by almost 2bp in the sector, weighing on Treasuries. US session includes 5-year note sale at 1pm New York, following Tuesday’s solid $69 billion 2-year auction. The WI 2-year at ~3.965% is ~17bp cheaper than the April stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.6bp.
In commodities, WTI rises 0.6% to $61.20 a barrel ahead of an OPEC+ committee meeting to review production quotes later on Wednesday. Spot gold climbs $20 to around $3,322/oz. Bitcoin falls 0.8% and below $109,000.
Looking at the US economic calendar, we get the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. FOMC meeting minutes from May 7 are released at 2pm.
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APAC stocks were mostly higher following the rally on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by strong consumer confidence and as US participants took their first opportunity to react to President Trump's tariff delay for the EU. ASX 200 lacked conviction after mixed data including firmer-than-expected CPI data and disappointing Construction Work. Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open following the recent currency weakness and the drop in super-long JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded indecisively after mixed earnings releases and a lack of major fresh macro drivers.
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European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened around the unchanged mark but sentiment has since slipped to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Nothing specific for the recent downside, but perhaps as focus turns to FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA results thereafter. European sectors are mixed, in-fitting with the indecisive risk-tone. Real Estate leads, with UK homebuilders boosting the sectors amid reports that the UK Government will ease planning hurdles for small housebuilders. Retail posts very narrow losses, with pressure stemming from post-earning downside in Kingfisher (-2.9%). Fashion retailer Shein reportedly working towards a Hong Kong listing after London IPO plans stalled; will file prospectus in the coming weeks; plans to IPO within this year, according to Reuters sources.
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DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
With US and UK markets returning from the public holiday, markets put in another strong performance over the last 24 hours. In part, that stemmed from a holiday-delayed reaction to Trump delaying the threat of 50% EU tariffs until July 9. But markets got a further boost from the Japanese bond rally we discussed this time yesterday, with extra impetus from stronger US data, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence print was noticeably higher than expected. So that led to a cross-asset rally, with the S&P 500 (+2.05%) picking up after 4 consecutive declines, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-6.7bps) fell back to 4.45%.
The biggest of those catalysts was the news out of Japan, which meant the country’s 30yr yield fell by more than -19bps in yesterday’s session. That was its biggest daily decline since the regional banking turmoil of March 2023, and marked a sharp reversal from recent weeks, when yields had hit their highest level since that maturity was first issued. As a reminder, the move came after several media outlets reported that Japan’s finance ministry sent out a questionnaire to market participants, asking about their views on issuance. So that led to speculation that they were about to cut long-dated issuance, leading to a huge rally among those bonds. That rally in Japan then echoed around the world, with long-end bond yields seeing a significant decline. For instance, the 30yr Treasury yield (-8.6bps) was down to 4.95%, which helped to ease fears about the US debt trajectory. And in Europe, 30yr yields fell back in Germany (-6.1bps), France (-5.6bps) and Italy (-5.8bps) as well.
However JGB yields have reversed some of their rally this morning as demand at a 40yr auction fell to its lowest since July, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.2 from 2.9 at the previous sale in March. 10 and 30yr JGB yields are up +7.4bps and +9.0bps respectively as I type.
Nevertheless yields are still comfortably lower than where they started the week and that has supported risk over the last 24 hours, with US equities seeing a strong recovery after the long weekend. That included the S&P 500 (+2.05%), which put in its best performance since the US and China agreed to slash their tariff rates a couple of weeks earlier. That was turbocharged by the Magnificent 7 (+3.24 %) ahead of Nvidia’s results tonight. But the rally was a broad-based one, and small-caps in the Russell 2000 also rose +2.48%. Outside the US, even more records were set, with Germany’s DAX (+0.83%) and Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite (+0.75%) both closing at all-time highs. And the advance continued elsewhere, with the STOXX 600 (+0.33%) posting a second day of gains.
This optimism was clear across the board, not least in the US Dollar’s recovery, after a few tepid sessions, suggesting that investors were moving back into US assets again. It was the strongest-performing G10 currency yesterday, and the dollar index itself was up +0.59%. Other indicators of market stress eased too, with the VIX index down -1.61pts to 18.96pts, whilst US HY spreads tightened by -14bps to 316bps.
Those moves got further momentum from the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence indicator for May. That rose for the first time in six months, rebounding by more than expected to 98.0 (vs. 87.1 expected). That included a particularly large jump in the expectations component, which surged 17.4pts on the month to 72.8, which is the biggest monthly rise since May 2009, as the US economy was still emerging from the aftershocks of the global financial crisis. So that helped to cement the view that a serious downturn would likely be avoided, which helped to support risk assets.
Meanwhile on the trade front, there was growing optimism that more trade deals were in the pipeline, particularly after Trump agreed to delay the threatened EU tariffs from June 1 until July 9. Only yesterday, NEC director Kevin Hasset said to CNBC that “we’ll probably see a few more deals, even this week.” And Trump himself said in a post that “ I have just been informed that the E.U. has called to quickly establish meeting dates.” So there was growing optimism that some kind of compromise could still be reached.
Elsewhere, we had several headlines from central bank officials. Notably at the ECB, Austria’s Holzmann endorsed keeping rates unchanged at the next couple of meetings, saying that moving rates “further south would be more risky than staying where we are and waiting until September”. He’s one of the most hawkish on the Governing Council and had already called for a pause at the last meeting in April. Germany’s Nagel, another typically hawkish voice, said it was too early to say if the ECB will cut rates in June. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Lane said that the ECB can respond with further cuts “If we see signs of further falling inflation” but suggested that the terminal rate in the easing cycle was unlikely to be below 1.5%. Markets are still pricing in a 25bp cut as a near-certainty for June, with a pause considered more likely at the meeting after that in July.
Against that backdrop, 10yr yields moved lower across Europe, with those on bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all declining. That fit into the broader risk-on move, as it pushed the 10yr Italian spread over bunds to just 98.5bps, the tightest since September 2021. However, front-end yield moves were more muted, with the 2yr German yield actually up +0.8bps on the day as part of a global curve flattening. That was repeated in the US as well, where the 2yr Treasury only fell -1.1bps to 3.98%, whereas the 10yr yield fell by a larger -6.7bps to 4.45%. As discussed at the top global yields are giving back some of their gains this morning with 10 and 30yr UST yields around +3bps higher this morning after the weak JGB auction.
Asian equity markets are still mostly higher this morning though, even if they're coming off earlier highs, with the KOSPI (+1.29%) outperforming and rallying to a nine-month high on outsized gains in tech stocks with sentiment improving ahead of next week's election. The Nikkei (+0.21%) is also higher with Chinese indices trading either side of flat.
However the Hang Seng (-0.55%) is bucking the regional trend while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.16%) is swinging between gains and losses after a strong consumer inflation report (more below). In overnight trading, US equity futures are down around a tenth of a percent.
Coming back to Australia, headline inflation remained stable at 2.4% year-on-year to April, a bit higher than the projected 2.3%. This slight increase was driven by rising health and holiday expenses, which counteracted the effect of falling petrol prices. The RBA's preferred inflation gauge, the trimmed mean, climbed to 2.8%.
In monetary policy action, the RBNZ reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected to 3.25% and signaled a larger-than-anticipated future easing cycle. This decision was driven by growing concerns about the impact of evolving US trade policies on economic growth, with the bank now forecasting rates of 2.92% and 2.85% for late 2025 and early 2026, respectively.
To the day ahead now, and central bank highlights include the minutes from the FOMC’s May meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari and the BoE’s Pill. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for April. Data releases include German unemployment for May, and in the US there’s the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia.