Tesla's third-quarter delivery report is expected to be released in early October. Goldman analysts have already raised both their delivery estimates and price targets, while UBS analysts just lifted their delivery forecast above consensus but maintained their "Sell" rating. 

UBS: Tesla 3Q25 Delivery Forecast

"We believe our new forecast is more in line with buy-side expectations in the 470-475k range," UBS analyst Joseph Spak told clients Monday. S

Spak continued, "Despite a print that may be inline with buyside expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number." 

Spak listed what changed their view ahead of the third-quarter delivery report expected on Oct. 2:

Other key points made by the analyst:

"TSLA stock driven more by AI narrative, not the auto business," Spak noted. 

Related:

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