


It's ancient history by now, but moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Goalseeking Analysis reported that in its third estimate of Q4 GDP, the US was estimated to have grown by 3.4% (3.440% to be precise), above the 3.2% reported last month and above the 3.2% estimate.
The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The update from the second estimate reflected upward revisions to consumer spending, business investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to inventory investment and exports. Imports were revised down. Here is a more detailed analysis:
Here the biggest contribution was personal spending, which increased even more than initially suspected, and reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (both outpatient and hospital services), other services (led by professional and other services), as well as food services and accommodations. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) as well as recreational goods and vehicles.
Here is a visual summary:
The BLS also provided a breakdown of GDP by industry, noting that the value added of private goods-producing industries increased 7.0%, private services-producing industries increased 2.6%, and government increased 3.1 percent. Overall, 18 of 22 industry groups contributed to the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP
Turning to prices, the Q4 2023 numbers are completely irrelevant especially with the latest Feb monthly PCE data out tomorrow (when markets are closed), but here goes anyway:
Finally, looking at corporate profits, these increased 4.1% at a quarterly rate in the fourth quarter after increasing 3.4% in the third quarter. Corporate profits also increased 5.1% in the fourth quarter from one year ago. More details: