Shares of Ferrari NV crashed 16% in Milan trading, marking the biggest intraday decline since 2016, after the exotic carmaker delivered a cautious long-term outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Analysts, including Tom Narayan's team at RBC Capital Markets, said Ferrari's updated 2030 guidance came in below consensus estimates. The cautious forecast comes as UBS warned last week that softness in U.S. consumer demand has spread from low-income to middle-income buyers.

Ferrari executives told investors at Capital Markets Day in Maranello that the 2025 guidance has been slightly revised higher, now targeting revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros and adjusted EBITDA of 2.72 billion euros, up from the previously announced target of at least 2.68 billion euros. 

However, the underwhelming 2030 forecast disappointed investors, according to UBS analyst Narayan. He pointed out that management forecasted revenue of 9 billion euros and EBITDA of 3.6 billion euros, implying a CAGR that is well below the 10% growth trajectory forecasted in 2022. 

Here's the snapshot of the 2025 Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Headlines from Capital Markets Day (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

In Milan, Ferrari shares plunged 16%, the largest decline on record, with data dating back to January 2016, when the stock first began trading. In New York, Ferrari shares fell 14%; those shares have been listed on the market since October 2015.

Back to Milan trading, shares are down 15% year-to-date, a multi-year bull run that began in 2022 now appears to be correcting.

Meanwhile, cracks began to appear among low-income consumers; now, UBS sees those cracks spreading to middle-income ones. 

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