Current US national economic activity fell in October for the fifth straight month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Chicago Fed national index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.4 in October (the weakest since January) versus -0.27 in September.

According to the report, three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index - production, employment, and personal consumption/housing - decreased from September.

Under the hood, only 30 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions; while 55 made negative contributions.

Amid all the month-to-month noise, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI has been negative for two straight years (since Oct 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a more local level, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index rose to -2.7 (from -3.0) - although that was worse than the -1.8 expected. The headline index has now been negative (contracting) for 31 straight months...

Source: Bloomberg

However, the index is at its least bad since April 2022 and on a forward-looking basis, optimism is soaring (as it did into the 2020 election, only to be dashed by Bidenomics)...

Source: Bloomberg

And based on the responses from interviewees, it's clear what the driving factor is behind the optimism this time...

And we given the last words to a representative of the wood-product manufacturing industry:

"Things are good."

...presumably they mean, now that Trump has complete the Red Sweep.