The 2025 Paris Air Show, Europe's biggest air show, is nearing an end as Airbus announced a flurry of new plane orders while Boeing dialed back its presence to focus on last week's Air India 787 Dreamliner crash. 

Reuters estimates Airbus has secured $21 billion in sales through Thursday morning, led by 132 firm orders on Monday alone from buyers including Saudi lessor AviLease, Japan's ANA, and Poland's LOT. That compares to just 41 for Boeing and 15 for Brazil's Embraer, according to aviation advisory firm IBA.

So far, in Boeing's absence, Airbus has seized center stage in the commercial aviation space. The show was defense-heavy, and the most yet, according to aviation blog AeroTime:

Yet even this early flurry of orders couldn't shift the broader impression: the 2025 edition is a defense show. More specifically, a show shaped by war and the enduring demands it places on production, logistics, and inventory. Organizers revealed that approximately 45% of this year's show was dedicated to defense and security, marking a record-high share for Le Bourget. Air and missile defense systems, ISR platforms, and drone technologies dominated both floor space and conversations.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to influence both the tone and content of announcements across the board. This year, exhibitors seemed more preoccupied with the gritty realities of supply chains, industrial base readiness, and attrition warfare.

It is a telling shift. The idea that high-end systems alone win wars has been challenged repeatedly over the past two years. In Ukraine, Russia's reliance on quantity over quality has exposed the limits of boutique arsenals. In Israel, stockpiles have proven just as essential as sensors or networked command.

Lockheed Martin captured this mood directly. It announced a production ramp-up across its missile portfolio, with a 40% increase in tactical missile deliveries year-on-year. While many eyes were looking for flashy unveilings or next-gen prototypes, Lockheed's real message was about scale and delivery capacity, two areas militaries increasingly care about.

Beyond missiles, a clear narrative emerged around the transformation of legacy platforms. Gone are the days when new drones or sixth-generation fighter mockups dominated every conversation. Instead, the focus has shifted toward how existing assets, some of them decades old, can be adapted to fight in tomorrow's networked environment.

Take Airbus's A400M, which was presented not just as a transport aircraft but as a future "mothership" platform capable of deploying UAVs and integrating into a system-of-systems battlefield. Similarly, Sikorsky gave a briefing in which its Black Hawk was showcased with concepts for integration with unmanned systems and autonomous missions, proof that even established workhorses are being reimagined for collaborative combat scenarios.

The language surrounding these announcements has changed, too. Buzzwords like "interoperability," "modularity," and "attritability" featured heavily, but so did references to reliability, sustainment, and production guarantees. It seems that militaries are asking fewer questions about what might be possible, and more about what will actually be delivered, on time and in quantity.

In a separate note, a team of Goldman analysts, led by Noah Poponak, attended the air show and met with 15 companies across the aviation industry. 

Given the Paris Air Show's heavier defense focus this year amid escalating global conflicts, we'll narrow the focus to Poponak's discussions with several key defense firms:

RTX Corp. (RTX; Neutral):

We attended the RTX investor event on 6/16. The company discussed its key platforms in the commercial and defense businesses, the opportunities it sees to expand and improve content, and how it can leverage data and AI to improve manufacturing efficiency and part effectiveness.

• Defense: The leadership team from RTX is focused on its missile defense systems and military engines. Management noted that production on its Coyote product has recently ramped from 40 to 100 and will reach 150/mo by the end of the year. The company described different layers of missile defense and its products (35 systems in use in combat today) within each that are set to grow with initiatives such as Golden Dome. RTX spoke to the success of the F35 in recent missions and how its work on the engine enables that. The company also highlighted it builds propulsion for the B21 bomber, the first sixth gen application, and is ready to provide commercial off the shelf engines for CCA depending on requirements.

Woodward Inc. (WWD; Buy - on Conviction List):

We hosted a group dinner meeting with Woodward Director of Investor Relations - Daniel Provaznik. Investor conversation spanned WWD's portfolio, covering LEAP content gains, JDAM, the industrial businesses, and the recent Airbus announcement. We also hosted an investor meeting with CFO Bill Lacey, Daniel Provaznik, and Market Analysis and Stratety Manager Scott Davis on 6/16.

• JDAM: In the last three quarters, Defense OE revenues have grown ~40%, ~21%, and ~52% yoy, with some of that momentum attributable to increased JDAM order activity. WWD expects to deliver JDAM components under a new contract structure beginning in ~F4Q25, where it has negotiated price increases, which should meaningfully improve the program margin.

GE Aerospace (GE; Buy):

We hosted Rahul Ghai (CFO) and Blaire Shoor (Head of IR).

• New engine technology & defense: GE believes the open fan approach to the engine it is developing under CFM's RISE program is the best way to achieve the 20%+ fuel efficiency gain over the current generation of engines (LEAP, GTF). That said, it will likely be several years before an OE makes a decision on what engine to move forward with, and the RISE engine would likely not see EIS until the mid 2030s if it were chosen. In GE's defense portfolio, the company believes its backlog, programs, and U.S. defense spending will sustain MSD% growth over the medium to long term.

CAE Inc. (CAE; Buy):

We hosted Andrew Arnovitz (Senior VP Investor Relations).

• Defense: Management sees large opportunities for its defense business to grow as non-US budgets increase. The company noted that 50% of its defense business is U.S. vs international. It identified Canada as a strong opportunity, as the country has under invested in defense for decades, and it needs many types of systems that CAE is well positioned to provide training on. The company believes it has a competitive advantage because it is not a prime and it has the ability to partner with disruptive defense tech companies to offer new products. Management reiterated its expectation for 8-8.5% margins this year and LDD% margins in the future.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM; Buy):

We hosted Ken Giacobbe (CFO) and Paul Luther (VP Investor Relations).

• Defense: HWM's defense business is strong. F35 is a big part of the business, as the company is sole sourced on critical components of the engine. The fleet currently stands at ~1,100 aircraft, and will to continue to grow at ~150 planes/year, so the company is optimistic about both OE and spares growth for the platform. On next generation capabilities, HWM is agnostic to who wins given its expertise in the hot parts of the engine, and the lack of a strong competitor.

On a related note, we flagged the emergence of a "hemispheric defense" theme last month—marking the rise of all things defense as the world fractures into an increasingly dangerous bi-polar state.