


Shares of Universal Music Group plummeted up to 30% in Amsterdam on Thursday after the world's largest record label, representing top artists like Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Drake, Adele, and Ariana Grande, reported disappointing second-quarter earnings. The report fell short of investor expectations regarding subscription and streaming revenue growth.
Universal's second-quarter report showed subscription revenue in recorded music grew 6.5% year-over-year, or 6.9% in constant currency, missing the Bloomberg estimate of surveyed analysts for growth of 11%.
On an earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Boyd Muir told investors that Spotify and YouTube's weak advertising revenue growth were some of the major drivers of softer sales. He said there are emerging roadblocks with social media platforms becoming major music distributors.
Universal Music has been pushing for platforms to compensate artists fairly and has advocated for a new streaming royalty model. The company started pulling its music from ByteDance Ltd.-owned TikTok in February after talks to extend a licensing deal failed. In May, it reached a deal with TikTok that included better pay for songwriters and artists, new promotional agreements and protections against AI-generated music. -Bloomberg
Here's a snapshot of second-quarter results:
Here are first-half results:
Shares in Amsterdam plunged as much as 30% today.
Citi analysts told clients that the results "undermine" what had been seen as defensive growth credentials. Citi, Barclays, and Guggenheim removed positive stances on the company, while Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded.
More from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Citi (neutral vs buy)
- Analyst Thomas Singlehurst says the mix was radically different from expectations, with 2Q Streaming & Subscription constant currency growth meaningfully below
- Main concerns are unprecedented level of volatility between different revenue lines, and that cash conversion appears to have got worse
- While sources of volatility may only be temporary, sentiment may be hit until there is evidence of re-acceleration in growth and inflection in cash flow
- Results undermine defensive growth credentials
Cowen (buy)
- Results beat on revenue and profitability, but subscription streaming growth a meaningful miss and ad-supported streaming performance also disappointed, analyst Doug Creutz writes
- While still confident in the long-term growth trajectory, the 2Q results "create some unwelcome" noise
Morgan Stanley (overweight)
- Analyst Ed Young says revenue miss, and unexpected deceleration, in Subscription and Streaming within Recorded Music likely to be key focus
- This was offset by revenue beats elsewhere, which does highlight diversified sources of growth
Meanwhile, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square holds a 10% stake as the second largest shareholder of the music group.
Oops.