The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains near year-to-date lows at 209k last week (in line with the revised 209k the prior week). However, the un-adjusted initial claims declined to 175k, the lowest since Oct 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Ohio - yet again!!!! - was the state with the biggest decline in claims while California and Texas saw claims soar...

As a reminder...

And the fraud unwind appears to be done...

Continuing claims rose above the Maginot Line of 1.7mm Americans. (rising to 1.702mm last week), also at year-to-date lows...

Source: Bloomberg

With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

Just wait for that distortion to unwind.