Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, reports that severe frost has struck key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas.
Wallengren warned that this "frost damage" event could be the "death blow" to the 2026 harvest, with production estimates now around 54 to 58 million bags versus prior estimates near 70% of capacity.
Given Brazil's position as the world's largest coffee producer, adverse weather conditions represent a potentially bullish catalyst for coffee futures in New York and warrant close market monitoring.
Here's the report from Wallengren, which was first published on X:
BREAKING #KC BRAZIL FROST DAMAGE continues to be confirmed across ALL of Cerrado Mineiro #coffee region, and also across MANY municipalities in Southern Minas and parts of SP/AM, and REPEATING as @SpillingTheBean has said MANY TIMES over the last month, even if the physical and visible damage to coffee trees, farms and regions may appear to be less right now than the July-2021 frosts four years ago, the STRESS IMPACT on trees and farms ahead of the 2026 flowering is MASSIVELY more severe now than four years ago, as most Brazilian coffee growers have NOT YET RECOVERED from the last 5 years of non-stop weather disasters, and the ENTIRE BRAZIL arabica coffee park is SEVERELY weakened and fragile compared to 4 years ago, hence the 2026 harvest was already SEVERELY compromised to a max crop potential of 70% BEFORE the latest and ongoing COLD FRONT and FROST started to move across the main MG coffee belt and this current frost development is THE DEATH BLOW to the 2026 harvest which in VERY BEST case scenario at this point will be able to produce a MAX of 54M-58M bags !!
The Cerrado Mineiro region is a major coffee-growing area in Brazil, but its contribution to global coffee output is relatively small.
Here's how it breaks down:
Commenters on Wallengren's post expressed surprise that coffee futures showed little reaction to the news. September arabica coffee in New York traded flat.
Will it take a few days for coffee desks to digest the problem?