Former Russian President and top Kremlin national security official Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that European leaders had failed to outplay Donald Trump, and that it remains unclear just how Ukraine's Zelensky will prevent the issue of territorial concessions.
White House officials, including Trump himself in prior statements, have made it known that compromise regarding territory is indeed on the table. "The anti-Russian warmongering Coalition of the Willing failed to outplay @POTUS on his turf," Medvedev said on X. "Europe thanked & sucked up to him." The below optics certainly don't contradict Medvedev. One commenter observes that Trump had likely "been waiting for a moment like this his whole life"...
Medvedev said the question remains "what tune" Zelenskyy would play "about guarantees & territories back home, once he’s put on his green military uniform again."
It is true that far-right elements within his own military and political establishment would react fiercely to any acts of territorial concessions - which would likely result in acts of violence, and possibly even threats on Zelensky's life.
At the same time, coming off his Alaska summit with Trump, Russia's President Putin remains firmly in the driver's seat, amid steady ground advances on the battlefield.
During a break in Monday's meeting among seven EU officials and Zelensky, German Chancellor Merz revealed during a break in talks, "the American president spoke with the Russian president on the phone and agreed that there would be a meeting between the Russian president and the Ukrainian president within the next two weeks."
But whether this happens or not will largely depend of what happens in the interim, and Kiev's attitude and statements on what it's willing to concede.
The geopolitics source Moon of Alabama highlights the perspective of former MI6 official and diplomat Alastair Crooke in the following:
Alastair Crooke suggests (video) that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will follow the outline of the Istanbul Agreement negotiated in March 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, under pressure from the West, had at that time refrained from signing it.
The Istanbul Agreement did include security guarantees (emphasis added):
The agreement assumes:...
2. Possible guarantor states: Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Israel. The free accession of other states to the treaty is proposed, in particular the Russian Federation proposes Belarus.
...
4. Ukraine does not join any military alliances, does not deploy foreign military bases and contingents, and conducts international military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states. For their part, the guarantor states confirm their intention to promote Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.
5. The guarantor states and Ukraine agree that in the event of aggression, any armed attack on Ukraine or any military operation against Ukraine, each of the Guarantor States, after urgent and immediate consultations between them (which shall be held within no more than three days), in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will provide (in response to and on the basis of an official request from Ukraine) assistance to Ukraine, as a permanently neutral state under attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as may be necessary, including closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state.
Any such armed attack (any military operation) and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
The mechanism for implementing security guarantees for Ukraine, based on the results of additional consultations between Ukraine and the Guarantor States, will be regulated in the Treaty, taking into account protection from possible provocations.
Again:
... such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.So yes, the Ukraine can have 'security guarantees'. But the conditions of those will be set by the main guarantor - which has to be Russia.
Trump seems to have understood that. How long will it take those European 'leaders' to get it?
Alastair Crooke speaks to Judge Andrew Napolitano:
Some of the awkward moments, optics, and tensions on display in the White House on Monday are consistent with the above take...
Below are some more Tuesday geopolitical headlines and developments via Newsquawk....
The next big question and milestone will be whether this series of high-level peace meetings will continue, leading to the big trilateral Putin-Trump-Zelensky meeting that the White House is hoping for.