The data drought is about to end (with some footnotes).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which we reminded our followers some time ago is not just behind the monthly jobs report but also the various inflation updates...
... said it will publish the September consumer price index on Oct. 24, marking a rare exception to release data during the government shutdown.
The report will come out that day at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, compared to the original publication date of Oct. 15, the agency said Friday.
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” BLS said in a statement. “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.”
Yesterday, Bloomberg News reported that the agency had recalled staff to prepare the report by the end of the month. The government uses third-quarter CPI data to determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients for the following year. The COLA announcement is typically made shortly after the BLS releases the September CPI. A BLS spokesman said that the SSA will make the COLA announcement on Oct. 24 as well.
So why Oct 24? because the next FOMC decision is on Oct 29, which means Trump is working overtime to assure another cut, and maybe even going for a jump. It also means that the CPI report will be "nudged" just enough to come (notably) below Wall Street estimates.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview earlier Friday that having the CPI report for that meeting will help “a lot.” However, he’s more concerned about the labor market, and the BLS still hasn’t released the September employment report that was due Oct. 3.
The BLS had suspended all operations, including data collection and the production of economic statistics, as a result of the government shutdown. In its latest contingency plan, the Labor Department said scheduled BLS releases wouldn’t come out during a shutdown, nor would the agency’s website be updated. Out of the BLS’s roughly 2,000 employees, the plan only prescribed the commissioner to work during a lapse in funding.
It also said that a delay of the CPI report released in October “might have an impact” on the COLA announcement.
The recalled staff have only been tasked with preparing the September CPI, according to Friday’s notice. That suggests staff are not collecting data for the October CPI due next month, nor are they working on the jobs report that was scheduled to be released last week.
When the government reopens, agencies like the BLS, as well as the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, will typically put out an updated schedule of publication dates for key economic reports.
For the September CPI report, which was originally scheduled for Oct 15, estimates are for a 0.3% MoM increase in headline CPI and 0.4% MoM increase in Core CPI, translating into 3.1% YoY increase for both metrics.
The BLS collects prices for the CPI throughout the entire reference month, meaning all data collection for the September report would have been complete by the time the government shut down on Oct. 1. Once the data is collected, it usually takes about eight to 10 business days to produce the report. Dozens of economists and IT specialists are typically involved in preparing and disseminating it.