Was that it for the Atlanta Fed recession (which as we described, managed to fool everyone into believing the US economy is crashing because of... surging gold imports)?

One month after the March Beige Book reported that in the first full month of Trump's presidency, economic activity actually "rose slightly since mid-January" and that "six districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions", moments ago the Fed released the April Beige Book report according to which economic activity was.... shockingly not falling off a cliff as one would expect listening to liberal media, but instead was "little changed since the previous report" even though uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Similar to last month, five districts saw slight growth, three districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four Districts reported slight to modest declines. And just as importantly, contrary to expectations of runaway prices, the Beige Book found that prices increases (described equally as modest and moderate) were not galloping higher but instead were "similar to the previous report."

In short, the sky is not falling. Here are some more details:

In short, much of the same inertia as last month. Where there was some notable change, was in the outlook: recall last month, "overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic." No more: courtesy of the concerted media campaign to spin Trump's economic policies in the worst possible light, the latest Beige Book described the outlook in several Districts as having "worsened considerably as economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, rose."

Taking a closer at the labor market, the April Beige Book found that employment was little changed to up slightly in most Districts, with one District reporting a modest increase, four reporting a slight increase, four reporting no change, and three reporting a slight decline. This was a slight deterioration from the previous report with a few more Districts reporting declines. That's the bad news; the great news is that DOGE is working: according to the report, "the most notable declines in headcount were in government roles or roles at organizations receiving government funding." Which is precisely what most people voted for. Some more details:

Turning to inflation, not surprisingly (to anyone who shops) prices increased across Districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report.

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

Confirming that contrary to conventional wisdom the economic picture was largely unchanged since April, the latest February Beige Book saw just 2 mentions of recessions, the same as March, and down sharply from 6 two months prior. Where there was some concern is that mentions of "slow" rose from from 35 in March (which was down from 38 in January) to 50. But the biggest surprise is that contrary to prevailing media narratives, mentions of inflation actually tumbled from a two year high of 15, to just 8- the lowest in three years, specifically since the start of the Fed's post-Covid inflationary tsunami...

... suggesting that the US economy - while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden's admin - continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see; and it certainly is not seeing prices explode higher.