There wasn't too much excitement in the latest Fed Beige Book report which was based on information collected on or before February 27, 2023: it found that overall economic activity increased slightly since the previous, Jan 18, 2023 report: Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace. Looking ahead, the mood remained listless with contacts "not expecting economic conditions to improve much in the months ahead."

That said, if one reads between the lines, the impression on gets is of consumers who are once again maxing out their credit cards just to keep pace with inflation; meanwhile even thought the Beige Book did not dwell on housing weakness, it noted growing weakness in the office market.

And, as noted above, "amid heightened uncertainty, contacts did not expect economic conditions to improve much in the months ahead."

Turning to labor markets we find a far stronger underlying picture, although one wonders how much of this is still a kneejerk response to the chaos in the immediate aftermath of the covid lockdowns:

And some good news for watchers of the wage-price spiral: "Wage increases are expected to moderate further in the coming year."

As with labor, there was optimism when looking ahead, as respondents said they "expected price increases to continue to moderate over the year."

Two charts to end with: first, peak inflation is now comfortably in the rearview mirror - with the fewest mentions in one year - and anyone betting that the Fed is freaking out about inflation may be surprised in two weeks...

... and while the risk of stagflation remains with mentions of "slow" high, this too saw a notable drop from recent record highs.

Source: Federal Reserve