Was that it for the Atlanta Fed recession (which as we described, managed to fool everyone into believing the US economy is crashing because of... surging gold imports)?

Two months after the December Beige Book (published in January) reported that in the last month of Biden's presidency, "economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December", moments ago - and with everyone expecting fire and brimstone and perhaps a confirmation that the US is now neck deep in a recession if not depression (at least based on how the 10Y and USD are trading) - the latest Fed Beige Book found that in February, or one month into Trump's 3rd 2nd presidency, economic activity actually "rose slightly since mid-January."

Reading the latest Fed report we find that six districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. 

Here are the specific details: 

Yet despite this mixed picture, overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic.

Taking a closer at the labor market, the Beige Book found that employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase, seven reporting no change, and one reporting a slight decline. 

Turning to inflation, not surprisingly (to anyone who shops) prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period. 

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

Confirming that contraray to conventional wisdom the economic picture improved notably since January, the latest February Beige Book saw just 2 mentions of recessions, down sharply from 6 two months prior. But more notably, while mentions of "slow" extended their decline to 35 from 38, mentions of inflation rose to a two year high of 15, up from 11 last month...

... suggesting that the US economy - while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden's admin - continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see.

Source: Federal Reserve