While countless Wall Street banks try to one-up each other with ridiculous guesstimates on how many more new iPhones Apple's still to be released AI Siri will sell, not based on any fact-based evidence but on goalseeking "vibes" to justify their ridiculous price targets, one independent analyst has demonstrated a proven track record of being accurate time and again, and as such his calls have an outlier impact on the stock.

We are talking about TF International Securities' Apple-watcher Ming-Chi Kuo, and the reason why AAPL just dumped to session lows is because according to Kuo, iPhone 16 orders were cut by around 10 million units for 4Q24–1H25, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models. As a result, iPhone 16 production for 2H24 is now estimated at 84 million units (down from around 88 million previously).

Following these cuts, total iPhone production for 4Q24, 1Q25, and 2Q25 is now forecast at around 80 million, 45 million, and 39 million units, respectively, all down YoY (vs. around 84 million, 48 million, and 41 million in 4Q23, 1Q24 and 2Q24, respectively).

Separately, iPhone SE4 mass production will start in December 2024, with projected production of around 8.6 million units from December 2024 to 1Q25.

Here is Kuo analysis and conclusions:

The reaction in the stock price was immediate, and it is hitting both the Nasdaq and the broader market, especially with Nvidia also dumping today.