Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

A pair of CNBC surveys show increasing financial stress in the US. The Fed predicts more of it and I am sure the Fed is correct.

“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

For 14 consecutive months, the cost of shelter has risen at least 0.5 percent from the preceding month. 

For discussion, please see The Tame March CPI Numbers Deceive as the Price of Rent Surges Again

Data from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for March, chart by Mish

A New York Fed survey shows Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

Please note Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

The Fed forecasts a recession, calls for higher unemployment and below trend growth, with risks to the downside.

The staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.

The unemployment rate was projected to rise above the staff’s estimate of its natural rate early next year. 

The Fed has never predicted a recession in advance. Is this a first or has a recession already started? 

Perhaps you think there won't be a recession. Those 58% living paycheck to paycheck, sure hope hope there won't be one. 

Meanwhile, President Biden is doing everything humanely possible with regulations, energy mandates, and support for unions to create more inflation. 

The dilemma for the Fed, and it's a huge one, is that credit conditions are very deflationary, but the economic policies of this administration coupled with trade wars everywhere are very inflationary.

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