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Seth McLaughlin


NextImg:Youngkin’s political fortunes on the line in battle for control of the Virginia legislature

The 2023 battle for the Virginia General Assembly is a contest of many firsts.

It is the first election in the Old Domination to take place under new state legislative maps, and the first to take place since the Supreme Court overturned Roe V Wade, which kicked the hot-button issue of abortion back to the states.

It is the first contest featuring a candidate embroiled in scandal over engaging in pornography for tips. And it’s the first — and last — opportunity Glenn Youngkin will have as a sitting governor to usher in a new era of Republican rule in Richmond, something he likely will need to do if he hopes to strengthen his national profile for a White House run.

“This contest in a lot of ways is being framed as Youngkin’s midterm election,” said J. Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Mr. Youngkin’s office did not respond to a request for comment. All 140 seats in the legislature are up for grabs on Nov. 7.

Mr. Youngkin and his super PAC, the Spirit of Virginia, have put a major emphasis on urging voters to take advantage of early voting that started Sep. 22.

“Virginia, this fall, we can cut taxes, grow jobs, build safe communities and stand up for parents,” Mr. Youngkin said in a recent TV ad. “But to get it done we need to win, and we can’t win if our candidates go into Election Day already down thousands of votes.”

“So get in the game by making a plan to vote early,” he said.

Mr. Youngkin has had a spotlight on him since he crashed onto the scene as a happy warrior with a traditional conservative message that included a heavy focus on empowering parents in schools. 

He shied away from being a Trump-styled politician and showed little interest in relitigating the results of the 2020 election. His star burned so bright that there are still some in the party who are holding out hope he will dive into the 2024 GOP presidential race.

Others insist Mr. Youngkin is more likely eyeing a possible White House run in 2028.

Consequently, he has a lot riding on the ongoing fight for control of the state legislature.

“If he wants to raise his national profile he needs to have a record of conservative legislating that has basically been denied to him so far by the Democratic majority in the Senate,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington.

As it stands, Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate and Republicans call the shots in the House of Delegates.

A survey released last week by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington found voters split over who they want to see calling the shots in the legislature.

Looking to energize their base, Democrats are warning that if Mr. Youngkin and Republicans seize the governing “trifecta” in Richmond they will move to strip away abortion rights, curtail the early voting, and loosen gun laws that Democrats enacted under Gov. Ralph Northam.

“This is the first year on new maps and first year all seats are up post-Dobbs,” Heather Williams, interim president and former executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told reporters in a conference call. “Make no mistake, an unchecked Republican trifecta would be devastating.”

“You will see an abortion ban if that happens and other fundamental freedoms would be taken away,” she said. “With how extreme Virginia Republicans have gotten, there is no telling how care they might go, but what is clear is the stakes of the election could not be higher.”

Virginia state law bans abortion after 26 weeks. Mr. Youngkin supports a 15-week ban.

Republicans counter that Democrats are the “extremists on abortion.”

“Most people believe that abortion at the moment of birth is wrong. Far beyond any reasonable limit,” the narrator says in a House GOP ad. “Not Virginia Democrats. They fought to make late-term abortions the rule, not the exception.”

Mr. Youngkin is carrying momentum out of the primary season where the 10 candidates he endorsed emerged victorious in contested races, putting him a step closer to having more loyal troops at the statehouse.

“He didn’t put his finger on the scale, he put his fist on the scale,” Mr. Farnsworth said. “The Youngkin vision of what the Republican Party should look like is the image that is going before voters this year.”

• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.