SEOUL, South Korea – South Korean voters dealt a blow to conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol Wednesday, with exit polls showing he will face a left-wing opposition-dominated National Assembly for the final three years of his term.
Projections by the country’s three main broadcasters give the opposition Democratic Party of Korea between 168 and 197 seats in the 300-seat unicameral legislature, with the upstart Rebuilding Korea Party, a new party formed in March by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, set to win 12 to 14 more seats and expected to ally with the DPK in the new Assembly.
Mr. Yoon’s right-wing People Power Party (PPP) was projected to secure just 85 to 105 seats, including those obtained through proportional representation by its satellite party, the People Future Party. Mr. Yoon’s single five-year term ends in May 2027, while the lawmakers elected Wednesday will sit for four years.
“Our party did our best to engage in politics that reflect the will of the people, but the exit poll results are disappointing,” Han Dong-hoon, the PPP’s interim leader, told reporters as the election results were still rolling in Wednesday. All told, opposition parties have about 180 seats in the current Assembly, and the enhanced majority may severely limit Mr. Yoon’s agenda in the coming years.
While the loss will likely have larger implications for the conservative president’s domestic policies, the opposition gains will bring new challenges for diplomats in South Korea, Japan and the U.S.: In a bold initiative for a South Korean president, Mr. Yoon has tried to cool Seoul’s long-heated relations with America’s other key ally in the region, Japan, during his first two years in office.
That outreach has irked many voters here, who customarily view Japan as an unrepentant, ex-imperialist power. It has gratified Tokyo, which questions some Korean historical claims and says it has offered multiple remunerations and apologies.
Warming South Korean-Japanese ties have also been warmly welcomed in Washington, which has long sought to upgrade trilateral cooperation against the regional threats posed by China and North Korea.
As president, Mr. Yoon retains control over the defense and foreign ministries, but his political brokering ability will be weakened if exit polls are accurate.
“Constitutionally, the president has authority over foreign and national security policy,” said Moon Chung-in, who advised previous governments on North Korean policies. “But the Assembly can, as in the U.S., intervene by controlling budgets and if the opposition coalition has a majority, the ruling party will have limited leverage.”
Mr. Moon, a professor emeritus at Seoul’s Yonsei University, reckons that won’t suit Mr. Yoon, whom critics allege finds it difficult to compromise. The president “would have to bargain with the opposition,” Mr. Moon said. “But given his style, that is unlikely. I see a collision course.”
The result will be felt well beyond South Korea.
“As the Assembly has many tools for policy intervention, the U.S. and Japanese governments will have serious concerns about the ability of the Yoon government to deliver,” Mr. Moon said.
‘Punishing’ the government
Asked about the campaign, most voters did not mention foreign policy, while those who did were strongly opposed to Mr. Yoon’s unconventional policies.
“I am a regular voter for the DPK, but this time I voted especially to punish the government,” said Mr. Chang, a 40-something design firm CEO, who like several voters, asked The Washington Times not to use his full name. “That includes Yoon trying hard to please Japan, and letting the Fukushima water out.”
Many Koreans were infuriated when the Yoon administration took Tokyo’s side last year in its release of irradiated coolant water from the earthquake-stricken Fukushima Nuclear Plant into the Pacific. Before its release, the water was filtered and treated under United Nations auspices, and no dangerous radioactivity has been detected since the release.
Other voters backed Mr. Yoon’s desire to move past past grievances with Tokyo.
“The leftists still go on and on about anti-Japan,” said Jun Arum, a 37-year-old housewife who voted for the PPP. “It is too backward — and not based on truth, even.”
Although it’s a prime concern for Washington, Mr. Chang said the threat posed by a nuclear-armed North Korea does not factor into domestic politics as an electoral concern.
“If we have a war with North Korea, it is going to be like a world war,” he said. “I don’t think it’s only a matter of [South] Korea.”
Personalities and policies
A week of campaigning saw intense but good-natured electioneering in one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies.
In Seoul, open-topped trucks roamed the streets, blaring music and slogans, while campaigners on their rear decks danced. On street corners, party workers and volunteers — often shoulder to shoulder with opposing party workers and volunteers — waved placards showcasing their respective candidates’ mugshots, under electioneering banners slung from lamp posts and trees.
For many voters, the election was less about approval of policy positions and more about disapproval of political personalities.
Angry citizens voted to oppose key politicians – notably Mr. Yoon, and DPK leader Lee Jae-myung. Mr. Lee, whose win Wednesday could boost a widely expected presidential run in 2027, faces multiple court challenges, but — like former President Donald Trump in the U.S. — has so far repelled all legal attacks.
“I don’t like either party, but my city’s former mayor is a nasty guy, and I don’t believe him or his party,” said PPP voter Lee Sung-min, a food and beverage manager in Seongnam City, the DPK leader’s political base. “I’ve heard more than two dozen allegations, including from people in the neighborhood office.”
“I want Yoon Suk Yeol out!” shot back DPK voter Lim Ji-young, an office worker in Seoul. “He has not done anything as president. He has to concentrate on the economy!”
The government has struggled to deal with a strike by trainee doctors that has gone on since Feb. 20, and Mr. Yoon, whose approval ratings have rarely risen above the mid-30% range, has also been hit by flak aimed at his wife, Kim Keon-hee. Wildly unpopular, she stands accused of accepting a pricey Dior bag from a person seeking access to her husband.
Even PPP voters concede the first couple have issues, including an incident when Mr. Yoon was caught swearing and criticizing U.S. lawmakers in a hot mic moment after a meeting with President Biden at the United Nations in 2022.
“The Yoon government has lost voters’ credit: They should apologize over the Dior bag issue and the Biden issue,” stormed Ms. Park, a wealthy businesswoman in her 60s who voted PPP. “ … Koreans are very soft toward those who bend a knee, but these two pretend nothing happened, and that gives the other party more issues, more stories.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.