China’s ruling Communist Party is preparing for war over Taiwan but President Xi Jinping would much rather take control of the U.S.-backed island democracy without a military clash.
So his plan, for now, is to tilt the upcoming Taiwanese elections in Beijing’s favor.
That’s the assessment of David Sauer, a veteran former U.S. intelligence officer with deep experience in the region, who says China’s strategy is to “hollow out Taiwan from within” and “create chaos” around the January 2024 election contest with the goal of generating a presidential winner who will push the island toward unification with the Communist mainland.
Chinese officials are already engaged in a campaign to “manipulate [the election] in their favor,” says Mr. Sauer, a retired CIA officer who served in multiple overseas command positions for the agency in East Asia and South Asia.
Over the coming year, Beijing will expand the operation using “a combination of information warfare, military intimidation, political and economic manipulation,” he predicted during an appearance this week on “The Washington Brief,” a monthly virtual forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation.
Beijing has clashed repeatedly with independence-leaning Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen since her election in 2016. Ms. Tsai is completing her second four-year term and by law must step down next year.
Beijing will seek to “create divisions within Taiwan society to try to get candidates that they want elected,” Mr. Sauer added, asserting that Chinese propaganda will also “frame the election as a choice between peace and war.” China will then reassess in the wake of the election whether to engage in military action or proceed with tactics of coercion toward whatever government ultimately takes power, he said.
It’s a sobering assessment that comes as Taiwan faces mounting military intimidation from mainland China, which considers the island democracy to be part of its sovereign territory and has refused to rule out military force if necessary to bring it under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control.
Ms. Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has aligned closely with the United States in recent years, warning the world that the Xi government in Beijing is preparing to invade the island and overthrow its fragile democracy.
As she prepared to leave, political speculation has surged in Taipei around the prospect of a return to power of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, which has a history of advocating for closer economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing.
The DPP is presently reported to be ahead in public opinion polls, but its path to victory is far from clear, as a competitive three-way race has begun shaping up amid early campaigning this summer.
Taiwan Vice President William Lai, a DPP stalwart who is likely to push a similar line on China that Ms. Tsai has projected over the past seven years, is polling at about 35%. The more centrist Taiwan People’s Party that emerged in 2019, meanwhile, is running former provincial Mayor Ko Wen-je, is close behind at about 30%.
And then there’s the KMT. The party held power prior to Ms. Tsai’s arrival in office and is rallying behind former Director General of the Taiwan National Police Agency Hou Yu-ih, who has been falling in summer polls and currently is given around 20% of the vote.
Mr. Sauer did not specify which of the Taiwanese candidates is preferred by China, although there are indications Beijing is already seeking to undermine the DPP and embrace the KMT.
Chinese media is already portraying the DPP’s Mr. Lai as bent on pushing for total Taiwanese independence, something even the Tsai government has resisted despite its outspoken pushback against Beijing in recent years.
An editorial circulated last week by China’s official Xinhua news agency stated: “It is a reasonable presumption that once in office, [Mr. Lai] would seize every opportunity to push de jure independence and take risks to challenge the one-China principle and the one-China policy that Washington has long adopted. Thus the Taiwan Strait will likely slip into the abyss of military confrontation.”
At the same time, Chinese officials have been openly courting former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT, hosting him on a visit to Beijing in March.
Mr. Sauer noted that when Mr. Ma returned home from the visit, he “made the statement that this next election is a choice between peace and war — certainly something the Chinese had been trying to parrot and they got him to spout their line.”
Some in the Tsai government have expressed similar worries about Beijing’s efforts to interfere in the coming campaign.
Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s unofficial ambassador to the United States, expressed concern during a May interview with The Washington Times that Chinese meddling had penetrated Taiwanese domestic politics through “rampant” disinformation and the promotion of “fake news” supporting Beijing’s positions.
“Their goal is to weaken our democracy, to sow divisions and discontent in our society,” the ambassador said.
Preparing for war?
Mr. Sauer asserted that while China’s goal is to control Taiwan and Beijing is “certainly preparing for war,” he stressed that war is neither inevitable nor imminent.
However, Beijing has increased military drills around Taiwan since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island democracy last year, the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island in a quarter-century.
The situation has created challenges for President Biden, who has countered the drills by sending U.S. warships through the Taiwan Strait and vowed that U.S. forces would respond militarily if the island were attacked by China.
But the White House has also made it clear Mr. Biden is committed to the so-called “One China” policy, under which the U.S. has long acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China — even as Washington maintains informal relations and substantial defense ties with the democratic government in Taiwan.
Mr. Biden has also made a clear effort to step back from recent soaring tensions with Beijing, dispatching Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other senior aides to China for fence-mending talks. The State Department said this week that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been invited to Washington in the near future for more discussions.
Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA official and longtime diplomatic adviser on U.S. policy in Asia, emphasized during this week’s Washington Brief that the Taiwan situation is being watched closely by U.S. officials.
The Taiwan Relations Act passed by Congress in 1979 made the U.S. position “very clear” that the issue of “One China” should be resolved between Taiwan and China by “peaceful means,” said Mr. DeTrani, who moderates the monthly forum.
“If other means were used — to include embargoes and anything of a blockade nature — it would be of grave concern to the United States,” he said.
Alexandre Mansourov, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, told the forum that Mr. Xi is “fixated” on the idea of annexing Taiwan, suggesting Washington should be more focused on increasing its defenses in the region.
Mr. Mansourov pointed to arguments among some in the U.S. national security community, who believe “we need more missiles. We need more ships, we need more bases.”
“Some people in Congress argue the U.S. defense budget must be increased,” he said. “The Taiwanese also must step up their self-defense efforts so they must really commit to military-to-military and defense industry cooperation, expansion with the United States.”
Mr. Sauer noted that while Taipei has significantly advanced defensive capabilities in recent years, progress has been slow and if China were to invade, “Taiwan doesn’t really stand a chance unless they really go for a transformation and they do it at a lot faster pace.”
“They have about 170,000 troops, 300 aircraft, about 57 major naval combatants. … They just don’t have enough guys,” he said.
All the while, Mr. Sauer said, Taiwan is “really the center of Chinese intelligence activity,” with the upcoming election in the crosshairs.
“All those campaigns I mentioned are infiltrated by Chinese spies and people that are trying to influence the candidates,” he said.
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.