SEOUL — Good vibes and happy talk will likely be to the fore as President Biden hosts South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday for a full-fledged state visit, but beyond the glittering dinners and photo opportunities, there will be some simmering issues to discuss.
For the cameras, the leaders will be celebrating Korean War heroism and 70 years of their bilateral alliance that have prevented war on the tense, divided Korean peninsula. That bond was sealed in 1953, the year the Korean War armistice was signed, committing both parties to mutual defense and the stationing today of some 28,000 American troops in South Korea to guard against the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea.
“President Biden and President Yoon will highlight the importance and enduring strength of the ironclad … alliance as well as the United States’ unwavering commitment to [South Korea],” the White House said in a statement previewing the summit and Wednesday’s White House state dinner. “That commitment will be welcome, given that Pyongyang is on an arms development roll, showcasing new threats including solid-fuel ballistic missiles and underwater atomic torpedoes.
On this, the two leaders look closely aligned. But behind closed doors, some issues — economic, diplomatic and military — will likely prove tricky to finesse.
Trade-dependent South Korea’s most valuable exports are semiconductors. In 2022, Seoul’s $1289 billion in computer chips sales abroad represented around 20% of all exports. The leading customer for South Korean chips is China, where Korean firms also fabricate the strategic components. But with Washington leaning on its allies to decouple from Beijing in chips, Korean media has been jittery about the sector.
Korean automakers have a beef, too: They are indignant that they are unable to receive tax breaks and subsidies from President Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) for electric vehicles, despite hefty investment in the U.S. auto sector.
Mr. Yoon, who departed for the U.S. Monday, is accompanied by a sizable business delegation that includes the heads of chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix Inc. and automaker Hyundai Motor.
And like Mr. Biden, Mr. Yoon has to keep an eye on the electoral calendar and how the results of this week’s talks play into politics back home.
“He needs some wins here to bring back to Seoul ahead of the general election next April,” said James Kim, a research fellow at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “He is taking leaders from business and we expect to see moves to win accolades in that constituency.”
Mr. Yoon may have already scored a win before his plane landed. Administration officials revealed Monday Mr. Biden was preparing to announce during the summit a new, enhanced nuclear deterrence policy with Seoul aimed at North Korea, including a new cybersecurity initiative, economic investments and educational partnerships, the Associated Press reported.
A Biden official briefing the press on background told The Associated Press the new deterrence package is a response to an aggressive series of missile tests by the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in recent months as Pyongyang has rejected diplomatic overtures from both Washington and Seoul.
Security concerns
The proposed U.S. package may prove a useful lifeline for Mr. Yoon, who is facing heavy flak on the security front, too, taking on a long-intractable problem deeply rooted in the region’s history.
Washington has long sought to upgrade trilateral military cooperation in Northeast Asia, warning that frosty relations between key allies Japan and South Korea undercut the hopes for a united front against the challenges posed by North Korea and China.
It was a campaign that finally appeared to bear fruit after Mr. Yoon ventured out on a political limb to try to settle the long-running rift with Tokyo over forced labor and other abuses dating back to World War II and even earlier. That initiative won applause in Washington — the U.S. state visit was announced one week before Mr. Yoon traveled to Japan in mid-March to meet Premier Fumio Kishida — but has proven poisonous with his own electorate, driving his approval ratings south.
Mr. Biden plans to highlight during this week’s visit that Mr. Yoon’s “courage and determination in rapprochement with Japan” is a vital contribution to regional security, aides told the AP Monday.
A more recent unpleasant complication has been the massive U.S. intelligence leak debacle. A tranche of classified disclosures, posted online in March, include allegations that Washington has not only snooped on its ally, but has eavesdropped on conversations at some of Seoul’s highest decision-making bodies.
Mr. Yoon may also face pressure on two more sensitive issues for South Korea — agreeing to supply weapons to Ukraine in its war with Russia and taking a firmer stance on Taiwan in the face of growing aggression from China.
“Restrictions on Korean companies do not play well domestically, especially in the context of the deal with Japan that has put Yoon under pressure, and the eavesdropping has added more pressure,” said Karl Friedhoff, a Korea specialist at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “He has to win some concessions on the economic side.”
Business blunders
Under the CHIPS Act, another Biden priority, Washington is seeking to build up chip manufacturing to the U.S. and deny Chinese competitors access to cutting-edge processing technology. The Biden administration is also pressing allies to downgrade their own China-facing exports and investments.
Last October, the U.s. offered South Korean chipmakers a one-year grace period during which they could continue to export chipmaking gear to China. This March, “guardrail” provisions published by the Commerce Department granted manufacturers that receive U.S. subsidies the right to export critical equipment to China, though it set a 5% production cap on top-tier chips.
South Korean media called the changes avoided a “a worst-case scenario” with regard to trade with China, South Korea’s biggest external market. Yet, with chips central to America’s pressure campaign on China, few believe Korean firms can breathe easy.
“If Japan is not going to sell into China, and the Netherlands is not, then if Korea breaks it, the whole thing falls apart,” said the Chicago Council’s Mr. Friedhoff. “I think that is essentially going to be the entire focus.”
Korean automakers, despite their investment in the U.S. — Hyundai, during Mr. Biden’s trip to Seoul last year, investments of $10 billion through 2025 in the American market — are unable to receive the new subsidies and tax breaks that their U.S. competitors receive for electric vehicles investments. South Korean carmakers do not, at present, make EVs in the U.S.
“On the IRA, I don’t think expect much change. … The legislation is carefully written and there is little room for the Biden administration to make exceptions,” said Asan’s Mr. Kim. “Treasury is working very hard to find a loophole on EV tax credits, but they are strait-jacketed.”
Seeking win-wins
One easy win may be for Mr. Biden to double down on security commitments in the region, a policy that might allay some nervousness that the U.S. is giving way as the region’s dominant power to a rising China or that the U.S. security umbrella is no longer strong enough to hold off North Korea.
“There is an ongoing debate in South Korea about the credibility of the U.S. security commitment: If there is war, can the U.S. commit as it did in the past, with massive involvement?” asked Moon Chung-in, an academic who has advised the liberal Seoul governments which have engaged North Korea. “Korean society is divided between those who believe that the U.S. will come and engage to save South Korea, and others who have lingering doubts on a U.S. commitment of that magnitude.”
In this context, Mr. Yoon’s government has persistently talked up the importance of the concept of “extended deterrence” — the deployment of assets such as nuclear-capable aircraft, submarines and carrier groups.
Potentially fertile areas for bilateral cooperation lie in intelligence-sharing, space technologies and nuclear and renewable energies, said Asan’s Mr. Kim.
He also suggested that South Korea — which announced its own Indo-Pacific strategy last November — might be willing to join with the U.S. in a wider security role in the region beyond the Korean peninsula.
Defense industries are another promising area. Informed sources in Seoul believe that the U.S. has ceased to aggressively defend intellectual property in arms, thereby enabling Korea, with its vast manufacturing muscle, to join the West’s flagging “arsenal of democracy.”
Seoul is “lending” 300,000-500,000 155mm artillery shells from stockpiles to the U.S., and is fulfilling a massive arms order for Poland, including tanks, artillery, rockets, warplanes. Whether it is willing to arm Ukraine directly is another matter, as current South Korean law forbids helping arm combatants engaged in an active war.
In a Reuters interview last week, Mr. Yoon mentioned the possibility of supplying Ukraine, and also mentioned Taiwan — drawing fire from both Russia and China.
Beijing slammed Mr. Yoon for calling Taiwan a “global issue,” while top Russian national security aide Dmitri Medvedev warned that if Seoul arms Kiev, Moscow will supply Pyongyang with its “latest” weapons.
However, Mr. Friedhoff is unconvinced that Mr. Yoon’s apparently unscripted comments signal a policy shift.
“Maybe the best lesson is to keep Yoon away from one-on-one interviews with international media,” he said. “Things seem to go a bit haywire.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.