Ohio voters will decide Tuesday whether future changes to the state constitution require a simple majority or 60% support, a decision that will have a major impact on a November fight over a pro-choice abortion measure.

Buckeye State voters will be asked in the fall whether a “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” should be added to the constitution as states navigate the fallout from the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

But Republican lawmakers scheduled an undercard fight this summer.

If “Issue 1” passes, it would make it harder for pro-choice advocates to lock in abortion rights through a constitutional amendment because changes will require a greater measure of support than polls suggest they can muster.

Tuesday’s special election not only asks voters to raise the support threshold for passage, but also eliminates a 10-day “curing” period when citizen campaigns can collect additional signatures for ballot questions. It also doubles the number of counties from which signatures must be collected, from 44 to all 88.

The vote is drawing nationwide attention to Ohio, which has long been a swing state but has turned redder in recent years, and a flood of outside money from political interest groups.

“I’ve consistently said Issue 1 is about protecting Ohio’s constitution and that it would apply to every future proposed amendment, the most immediate being abortion, minimum wage, livestock agriculture, election integrity, and redistricting reform,” Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate pushing for a “yes” vote Tuesday, wrote in a recent piece for the Toledo Blade.

David Pepper, the former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, said while top Republicans are characterizing Issue 1 as a good-governance provision, their sole motivation is to defeat November’s abortion measure after the pro-life side lost ballot battles in swing-state Michigan and solidly-red Kansas and Kentucky.

“It’s been hard for them to hide that that’s what it’s about it,” Mr. Pepper said. “It’s obviously this is a desperate effort to change the rules.”

Abortion is legal until 20 weeks into pregnancy in Ohio while a legal stay is in place against a six-week limit that was approved in the wake of the 2022 Supreme Court decision in Dobbs that ended abortion as a federal constitutional right and returned the issue to the states.

Pro-choice groups believe the six-week threshold will be upheld down the road, so they are pushing the November measure to allow abortion around 24 weeks into pregnancy — the fetal-viability standard used in the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

The preliminary fight over the threshold for constitutional changes is significant because a Suffolk University / USA Today poll found about 58% of Ohio voters support November’s amendment — a majority, but below a 60% threshold.

Similarly, last year’s ballot-driven efforts to shore up abortion access typically drew support from 50% to 60% of voters.

Mr. Pepper said Tuesday’s vote is “such an egregious power play” that it sparked pushback from a wide coalition of Democrats, libertarians and Republicans such as former Gov. John Kasich, a 2016 presidential candidate.

“It’s a massive coalition. It’s across party lines,” Mr. Pepper said.

Supporters of Issue 1 say it is important to stiffen the constitutional-amendment threshold so that big-moneyed, out-of-state interests do not overwhelm the desires of Ohioans.

Outside money is flooding in, anyway.

An Associated Press analysis found a key group in support of Issue 1 — Protect Our Constitution — got $4 million of its $4.8 million from Richard Uihlein, a wealthy Illinois businessman.

Similarly, it found an anti-Issue 1 group, One Person One Vote, got nearly 85% of its donations from outside Ohio.

State-based groups are trying to win hearts and minds, too.

“Thousands of physicians across Ohio have made it clear, we must defeat Issue 1 on August 8th and pass the reproductive freedom amendment on November 7th to protect the health and safety of patients,”  Pro-Choice Ohio Executive Director Kellie Copeland tweeted as the campaign heated up this summer.

Amy Natoce, a spokeswoman for pro-life Protect Women Ohio, said her organization formed in March to combat the November abortion measure but it has also spent $9 million on Issue 1.

“We’ve kind of been fighting on two fronts,” she said.

She said many states have a higher threshold than a simple majority for changes to their constitutions, leaving Ohio exposed to outside groups who want to push changes. Also, she said the language in the November measure leaves fetal viability to the judgment of the pregnant patient’s doctor.

“It really leaves the door open to abortion-on-demand,” she said.

Mr. Pepper said the “no” side goes into Tuesday’s vote with an apparent advantage but the “yes” side could win because the election is being held in the lazy days of August.

“A low turnout election is very unpredictable,” he said.

At least on that, Mr. Pepper and Ms. Natoce can agree.

“It’ll be a turnout election, as all issue campaigns are,” Ms. Natoce said. “We are confident that when Ohioans understand what Issue 1 is and how open Ohio’s constitution is to outside groups, they are 100% behind Issue 1.”

• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.