U.S. economic growth is projected to decline to just 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 due to trade uncertainty and other factors, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

By contrast, economic growth had been 2.8% in 2024. As recently as March, the OECD had anticipated 2.2% growth for 2025.

Yet the OECD, a 38-nation forum established to promote economic progress and global trade, pointed to recently imposed tariffs on imports into the U.S. and tit-for-tat levies elsewhere.

“In the United States, output growth is expected to slow significantly due to the substantially higher effective tariff rate on imports, combined with retaliatory measures from some trading partners, elevated policy uncertainty and softer real income growth,” the OECD report said.

The organization also pointed to a slowdown in net immigration and a reduction in the federal workforce as factors that will moderate growth.

Despite the lackluster projection, President Trump says the U.S. economy will flourish once he implements his interlocking agenda of tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation.

His GOP allies in Congress are working on a large bill that would cut government spending, extend tax cuts from 2017 and implement new tax provisions. The House passed a version, but the Senate will have to debate the bill and various concerns, such as its impacts on deficits and Medicaid, the federal-state insurance program for the poor.

Mr. Trump’s tariffs are a tax or duty on goods brought into U.S. markets from other countries. He says they will protect U.S. industries and promote American manufacturing and job growth.

“Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!” Mr. Trump posted late Monday on Truth Social.

Recently, the U.S. Court of International Trade held that Mr. Trump overstepped his authority with sweeping tariffs on other nations. An appeals court paused the implementation of that ruling.

The ruling did not impact sector-specific tariffs on things like steel and aluminum imports, which are set to double from 25% to 50% on Wednesday.

More broadly, the OECD projects that global growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026.

It said the slowdown would be concentrated in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and China, “with smaller downward adjustments in other economies.”

• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.