SEOUL, South Korea – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan — East Asian nations allied to, or friendly with, the United States — are nervously bracing themselves for a second Donald Trump administration.
Stern challenges lie ahead of Mr. Trump’s second four-year term in the White House, managing alliances and deterring adversaries across the region.
The Trump administration is taking office as China, North Korea and Russia, continental powers that extend in a vast regional arc from the Himalayas to Eurasia’s Arctic rim, are boosting their military prowess and forging deeper ties.
Russian and North Korean forces are battling together in Ukraine while China is massively building out its military, with its expanding fleet – which already outnumbers the U.S. Navy in hull terms, 234 to 219 – posing a special threat to the coastal and maritime U.S. allies in the region.
For the four critical countries, no single, NATO-style U.S.-led defense network shields them. Japan, South Korea and the Philippines all have separate security treaties with the U.S. but no overarching security architecture. Taiwan lacks any defense treaty with the United States, relying upon what the U.S. State Department calls “a robust unofficial relationship” — a tradition of military support, cloaked in strategic ambiguity.
The Biden administration labored to expand and deepen a web of “mini-lateral” regional defense relationships, but none have the heft of the countries’ respective ties to the U.S.
Now, there are whispered concerns about an “America First” president who has focused on the cost to taxpayers of America’s Asian alliances in the past and who has made clear that no ally will get a “free ride.” Mr. Trump has also vowed to get tough on countries like Japan and South Korea, which have significant trade surpluses with the U.S.
Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba, who has spoken favorably of an “Asian NATO,” conceded to reporters in Tokyo Tuesday that Mr. Trump prefers “bilateral, rather than multilateral, arrangements.”
There are hopes that Japan will be buttressed against new financial demands from Mr. Trump by the massive purchases of cutting-edge U.S. weapons, notably 400 Tomahawk Cruise missiles and 147 F-35s, the world’s largest fleet of the stealth fighter jets outside of the U.S.
Japan’s Asahi Daily reported Tuesday that Japanese government officials have been holding closed-door “Trump Response Team” meetings since his victory in November, with Mr. Trump’s promised tariffs a top concern. Some are urging the government to take a tough line, despite the longstanding ties between the two allies.
“It doesn’t help to have a Japanese prime minister who is going to kowtow to the president,” Ado Machida, a one-time policy adviser to Mr. Trump, told Kyodo News in an interview, advising Mr. Ishiba to adopt a “Japan First” mindset.
U.S.-Japanese relations were already rocked by President Biden’s decision after the election to block the bid by Japan’s top steel maker, Nippon Steel, to acquire U.S. Steel, citing national security concerns. Tokyo strongly criticized the move, but Mr. Trump, too, has made clear he wants the U.S. Steel company to remain in American hands.
Japan has so far withstood challenges by Chinese Coast Guard and fishing fleets to the unoccupied Senkaku Islands – known in Chinese as the Diaoyus in – and is sympathetic to Taiwan. Tokyo also wants strengthened ties with South Korea, but huge uncertainties hang over that relationship as well.
Paralyzed South Korea
Seoul is trapped in policy paralysis as it deals with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who on Tuesday made his first appearance at the Constitutional Court, which now has 173 days to uphold or overturn Mr. Yoon’s impeachment. If Mr. Yoon is forced out, a presidential election must be held within 60 days.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok sent a message crafted to catch Mr. Trump’s eye, insisting that South Korea “looks forward to Making the Alliance Great Again in the 47th presidency, as we have during the 45th.”
South Korea only has a minor territorial dispute with China — over a submerged reef at the entrance to Yellow Sea — and unlike Japan, its lawmakers are loath to express support for Taiwan.
However, its capital lies within 35 miles of a bristling arsenal of North Korean weaponry — including nuclear warheads.
Speaking to reporters Monday, Mr. Trump made a passing reference to North Korea as a “nuclear power.” Some South Koreans fear he might unilaterally recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear state, something previous U.S. administrations declined to do as they sought the complete denuclearization of North Korea.
Another concern is a possible resumption of Mr. Trump’s first-term personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which largely bypassed Seoul. Speaking via video to U.S. troops in South Korea after his inauguration, Monday, Mr. Trump joked, “How’s Kim Jong-un doing? I developed a pretty good relationship with him, though he is a tough cookie.”
The view from Manila and Taipei
The Philippines cannot boast the high-tech military prowess of Japan and South Korea, though it is home to a range of U.S. bases that expanded under Mr. Biden.
Manila is also facing a determined pressure campaign from China, as Beijing seeks control over a series of disputed reefs, shoals and fishing grounds in the South China Sea.
High-tech Taiwan does not have a formal defense alliance with the U.S., but Taipei enjoys leverage the Philippines lacks: It hosts the foundries that make the world’s leading semiconductors, crucial to global industry.
But the island is suffering an ever-tightening squeeze by Chinese naval and air forces, as well as diplomatic coercion from Beijing. Some analysts, predominantly in the U.S., voice fears that China is preparing for an invasion in the near future. Mr. Trump’s comments on the Taiwanese-U.S. relationship have raised concerns.
Last July, Mr. Trump shook the island when he said Washington was acting as “an insurance company” for Taiwan. His former vice president, Mike Pence — who has largely broken with his former boss — met Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te last week, where Mr. Lai thanked Mr. Pence for upgrading defense ties with the U.S.
Hours after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, the island’s opposition-controlled legislature voted to freeze defense funds — a move some fear could anger Mr. Trump and play into China’s hands.
However, both Manila and Taipei may take comfort from statements by Mr. Trump’s new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, the former Republican senator and China hawk who was sworn into office Tuesday.
Speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 16, Mr. Rubio warned China against doing anything “rash or irrational” toward Taiwan or the Philippines.
“The actions they are taking now are deeply destabilizing,” he said. “They are forcing us to take counter-actions, because we have commitments to the Philippines, and we have commitments to Taiwan that we intend to keep.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.