KYIV , Ukraine — Shell-shocked but defiant residents here don’t need satellite photos or top-secret intelligence reports to sense that Russia is getting fresh outside help in a stalemated war that is soon to pass its two-year mark.
As political infighting among Ukraine’s Western allies delays aid to the embattled country, deliveries of North Korean and Iranian weapons have bolstered Russia’s arsenal in recent weeks.
On Jan. 2, Ukrainians awoke again to the sound of explosions overhead as a barrage of Russian ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones struck multiple cities.
“The air-raid alert woke me up at around 6 in the morning, and I checked my phone to find out what was going on,” said Mariika Lobyntseva, an artist and resident of Kyiv . “I saw that a bunch of [Russian] planes had taken off, and I said to myself, ‘It’s going to be a big attack.’ It had been quiet for a while, so the number of planes taking off was pretty suspicious.”
Since then, the warning sirens have sounded in major Ukrainian cities virtually every day. On Wednesday, Russia fired two S-300 missiles at Kharkiv, hitting apartment buildings and a medical center and injuring 17 people, The Associated Press reported.
Deliveries of North Korean missiles and Iranian drones have bolstered Russia’s once-threadbare arsenals. Last week, the European Union and the Biden administration denounced North Korea “in the strongest possible terms” in a communique signed by nearly 50 countries.
“The transfer of these weapons increases the suffering of the Ukrainian people, supports Russia ’s war of aggression and undermines the global non-proliferation regime,” the statement read in part.
The signatories explicitly accuse Russia of using North Korean ballistic missiles on two specific occasions, including the one Mariika Lobyntseva witnessed on Jan. 2.
Ms. Lobyntseva reached out to relatives in her native Odesa. They told her that a series of blasts had just rocked the southern city, Ukraine ’s third most populous and its largest port on the Black Sea.
“Not long after that, they sent a bunch of missiles, cruise and ballistic,” she said. “I heard about four or five explosions, and the last ones were very, very powerful. The building was shaking.”
A barrage of drones and missiles targeting cities and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine the previous week signaled the beginning of the long-awaited Russian winter bombing campaign. In total, Russian forces fired some 122 missiles and dozens of drones on Dec. 29, the largest such attack of the war so far. At least 30 civilians were killed an another 144 were wounded.
Ukrainian authorities had been preparing for several weeks for a renewed Russian bombing campaign. Last winter, Moscow targeted Ukraine’s energy grid in an effort to undermine Ukrainian morale and paralyze the country’s struggling economy. By winter’s end, the strikes had shut down 50% of Ukraine ’s energy sector and caused an estimated $8.8 billion in damages, yet Ukrainians soldiered on.
“This year’s campaign of missile strikes differs from last year’s only in that there have been more attacks on industrial and manufacturing facilities,” said Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military analyst and head of the Center for Military Legal Research, a local think tank. “Its goals are to terrorize the civilian population and strike industrial and defense facilities. In this way, Russia seeks to demoralize Ukrainians and cause economic losses and damage, as well as weaken their defense capabilities and resilience.”
Stopping the Kinzhal
Mr. Musiyenko said the ongoing bombing campaign has seen an increased use of the much-touted hypersonic Kinzhal — “Dagger” — missiles compared with last year’s. First disclosed in 2018 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the fleet, air-launched ballistic missile has a reported top speed of Mach 10 and has been described by President Biden as “almost impossible to stop.”
“As you all know, it’s a consequential weapon but with the same warhead on it as any other launched missile,” Mr. Biden said after the destruction of a Ukrainian weapons depot in March 2022, adding that it was at the time the only missile in the Russian arsenal that could “get through” Ukraine ’s air defenses with “absolute certainty.”
However, the transfer of sophisticated air-defense systems by Ukraine ’s Western partners — notably, the American Patriot air defense batteries — has challenged the Khinzal’s supposed infallibility.
On Jan. 2, Ukrainian authorities claimed that they had managed to shoot down all 10 Khinzals launched by Russia as part of an early-morning attack across the country. Ms. Lobyntseva, like many of Kyiv ’s battle-hardened residents, now places her faith in the air defense systems supplied to Ukraine by its allies.
“The whole morning, I had this anxious feeling of not knowing what is going on, how many missiles they sent,” she said. “I’m pretty confident about the air defenses in Kyiv , but still, seeing pictures of strikes in Dnipro, where I have friends, it impacts you.”
A few days after the attack, photos published by Ukraine ’s State Emergency Services showed Ukrainian military engineers removing parts of a Khinzal’s neutralized warhead that had been shot down over the capital.
“Ukraine ’s air defense systems are working well and the Patriot system has proven particularly effective in shooting down ballistic missiles,” said Mr. Musiyenko, warning, however, that Ukraine lacked both the air defense systems and the ammunition to withstand a sustained Russian campaign.
Ukraine badly needs additional air defense systems such as Patriot, SAMP/T, NASAMS and a large stockpile of missiles. During a renewed attack on Jan. 7, Kyiv ’s defense forces were only able to shoot down 18 of the 59 missiles launched, stoking fears that the country’s air defense systems were being overwhelmed by Russian drones and missiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been making a concerted push for Western support amid the near-daily salvos from Russia . The Ukrainian leader appeared in person at the current global summit in Davos to push for more aid, and NATO ministers are meeting in Brussels this week to coordinate military strategy for the coming year.
“Yes, we are tired” from fighting Russia , Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters in Davos Wednesday, but added: “No matter how tired or exhausted we will be, we will keep defending our country.”
Ukraine ’s priority this year is air power, Mr. Kuleba said, “because the one who controls the skies will define when and how the war will end.”
Meanwhile, according to Mr. Musiyenko, Russia is currently able to produce between 100 and 120 cruise missiles per month, and has mobilized to increase production of domestic weaponized drones, such as the “Lancet” loitering munition, which has been described by the British ministry of Defense as “one of the most effective new capabilities” fielded by Russia in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
A July 2023 story broadcast on Russian television showcased a massive new facility where hundreds of the weapons were being manufactured and claimed that production of the UAV was being “tripled.”
“Just like last year, Ukrainian population centers and civil infrastructures remain in Russia ’s crosshairs,” Mr. Musiyenko said.