SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea could face some critical strategic choices if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump resumes his diplomatic outreach to North Korea and recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear state, top security analysts here are warning.
The head of South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy called the potential U.S. recognition of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs “traumatic” in a briefing to reporters Monday. The INSS, a civilian think tank, is affiliated with the government’s National Intelligence Service.
But the analysts also made clear that a second Trump administration offers possibilities as well as risks for the divided peninsula, depending on how Mr. Trump’s new national security and diplomatic team approaches the crisis. The first Trump administration’s demand that North Korea give up its nuclear programs in exchange for economic aid and sanctions relief led to a breakdown of Mr. Trump’s personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“If the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state in any form, that would be really traumatic for South Korea,” said INSS President Han Suk-hee. “For the past 30 to 40 years, South Korea has been in cooperation with the U.S.-led denuclearization and nonproliferation regimes. … if the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state, South Korea will be a victim.”
For years, North Korea watchers have maintained the Kim regime will never abandon atomic arms, seeing them as a last guarantee of national survival. That position has been reinforced multiple times by Mr. Kim and is written into the national constitution.
Mr. Kim has yet to comment directly on the American election, but last week appeared to hint at a tough line if the incoming Trump administration plans to renew security talks.
SEE ALSO: ‘We will respond in every way’: Russia warns South Korea against arming Ukraine
“We have already gone as far as possible with the United States with negotiations,” Mr. Kim told a defense exposition in Pyongyang last week. “And what we ended up confirming was not a superpower’s will for coexistence, but a thorough position based on force and an unchangeable invasive and hostile policy” toward North Korea.
But the United States has consistently refused to acknowledge this status — likely because it would be an impossible sell to American voters. For this reason, virtually all high-level U.S. contacts with Pyongyang have been predicated upon the North renouncing its nuclear weapons programs.
Calling that approach a recipe for failure, some have argued in favor of officially recognizing North Korea’s WMD programs. A shift away from total denuclearization to arms control would offer talks higher chances of success, these experts believe.
Mr. Trump has frequently made clear his distaste for multinational organizations and agreements. His stance toward the U.N.-led Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, however, is unclear.
“We don’t think President-elect Trump respects the NPT or other multilateral agreements,” said Ha Kyoung-seok, part of the INSS’s new “Trump Risk Team.” “He has not explicitly or publicly expressed a position on the NPT, as that would limit his future movements.”
Mr. Trump has famously talked up his extraordinary personal relationship with Mr. Kim, though he humiliated the North Korean leader by walking out of their second face-to-face summit in Hanoi in 2019 when talks reached an impasse.
That cost Mr. Kim a massive amount of “face” with both his elites and his wider populace. Since 2019, U.S.-North Korean relations have been largely frozen, with minimal contact under President Biden.
Bigger carrots
Now, with Mr. Kim winning a new ally in Russian President Vladimir Putin, sending troops and weapons to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic, security and diplomatic aid, Pyongyang’s global footing is firmer than ever.
That, according to South Korean security experts, means that Mr. Trump will have to dangle a larger carrot if he wants to lure Mr. Kim into new talks. That carrot, in turn, could spark soul-searching in South Korea over its own security policies and its ability to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella to protect it in the long run.
“To ignite active discussions, Trump has to meet [Mr. Kim] and approve North Korea as a nuclear state,” said Mr. Han. “If that happens, South Korean people will approve and agree on our own nuclear weapons system.”
Multiple polls in recent years have found deep support among South Koreans for the country to obtain its own nuclear weapon. Conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol has mentioned the possibility but has been assuaged by the Biden administration’s extension of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and the establishment of a bilateral nuclear-sharing group.
But fresh question marks hover over whether the unconventional Mr. Trump would sign off on South Korea exiting the nonproliferation treaty and becoming the world’s next nuclear state.
Opportunities
Along with the challenges, a second Trump administration also represents an opportunity for Seoul.
In his first call with Mr. Yoon, the U.S. president-elect raised the issue of maintenance and repair of U.S. warships in South Korea’s world-class shipyards.
Strategically, Mr. Ha notes that containment of China is central to Mr. Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and he will be “open to all options.” In that strategy, South Korea has an ace in the hole: It offers the U.S. military its closest geographical posting to the Chinese mainland China.
The 28,000 American soldiers in South Korea have left positions facing North Korea and redeployed to bases lining the Yellow Sea Coast, south of Seoul. U.S. Army and Air Force garrisons also have maritime access via a South Korean naval base.
Though the U.S. troops in South Korea are officially tasked with deterring a North Korean attack, the command’s current footprint potentially offers unrestricted radar, aerial, naval and direct-fire access to China’s eastern seaboard — home to key naval shipyards and naval bases.
In his first term, Mr. Trump — a proponent of greater defense spending by allies — sparked tensions by demanding more cash for U.S. troops in both Japan and South Korea. In his second, South Korea might be able to use its geostrategic position to its advantage.
The Trump administration is “likely to use U.S. Forces Korea as a critical component of its China containment strategy,” said Mr. Han. “This underscores the need for South Korea to pursue de-risking strategies and explore new approaches.”
Mr. Ha expects Mr. Trump to get along well with Mr. Yoon. The latter has focused on improving relations with Japan — boosting a long-held U.S. hope of upgrading the trilateral defense relationship.
“There are high expectations in the U.S. about [Mr. Yoon],” Mr. Ha said. “Many persons say, in Asia, there was Shinzo Abe in Trump’s first term, and there is Yoon Suk Yeol during his second term.” The late Mr. Abe, Japan’s longest-serving premier, boosted Japan’s defenses and forged a close relationship with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Yoon has reportedly taken up his golf clubs after an eight-year hiatus, in a bid to cultivate relations with the golf-loving U.S. president-elect.
“Making intimate and personal relations by playing golf can be an important diplomatic route,” Mr. Ha advised.
But beyond the security domain, economic relations could be tense, with Mr. Trump promising new tariffs on imports from adversaries and allies alike. The U.S. is the largest single market for South Korean exports.
Mr. Trump “is likely to separate security and economy,” said Go Myong-hyun, another INSS researcher. “Japan and South Korea have trade surpluses with the U.S., and President-elect Trump may want to focus on this.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.