Put this one in the be-careful-what-you-wish-for file.
President Trump’s dream of transforming Canada into the 51st state would essentially add another state with roughly the same population and political leanings as California to America’s political map, giving Democrats massive advantages on Capitol Hill and in the Electoral College.
Even the conservatives in Canada are more aligned with America’s Democrats, said Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at the University of Western Ontario.
He said that Pierre Poilievre, the powerful leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, would be considered a moderate Democrat if he were a U.S. politician.
“If you go issue by issue, you’ll find the vast number of positions supported by Republicans are not as popular in Canada,” Mr. Lebo said. “Abortion is accepted by Conservatives in Canada and then there’s universal health care, and Conservatives are not looking to get rid of that. Even gun policy is so different with only a tiny fraction of Conservatives looking to trade the right to bear arms for our low gun death rate.”
Canada’s 40 million people would also top California’s 39 million to become the largest state in the U.S.
SEE ALSO: Trump: Trudeau is right, I do want Canada to be 51st state
Adding such a large liberal-leaning population would create a much narrower path for Republican victory in presidential elections.
Canada would get two senators and there is little doubt that they would be Democrats. In the current Congress, Republicans would still hold the majority but it would narrow the margin to 53-49.
House seats are apportioned based on population and applying that formula to Canada’s 40 million residents would net it 45 seats. But it’s unlikely that Congress would budge from its cap of 435 members. House seats are reshuffled once a decade based on the latest census population counts.
Canada’s 45 seats would come at the expense of seats in the most populous U.S. states. California would stand to lose the most seats, but so would some big red states such as Texas and Florida and swing states North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Some of the Canadian seats in the House would likely be won by Republicans, but that would largely depend on the districting process in the new state.
The political readjustment would be more complicated if Canada joined the union not as one big state but rather as 13 smaller states consistent with Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories. However, one province, Quebec, is not part of the Canadian constitution, and they’d likely refuse to be under the U.S. Constitution, too.
Yes. That would be 26 additional seats for Canadians in the U.S. Senate.
“Whether it’s incorporating one state or 13 new states, it’s going to shift the power in the United States in favor of liberals,” said Andrew Latham, who teaches international relations at Macalester College. “Canadians expect a certain kind of health care, a certain kind of foreign policy.”
Canada would then have 47 electoral votes based on 45 House seats and two senators. While that wouldn’t have shifted the outcome of Mr. Trump’s blowout win over Vice President Kamala Harris, it could dramatically impact future elections.
Right now, solidly blue states account for 226 electoral votes and reliably red states make up 219 votes. Adding Canada to the mix could give Democrats 253 electoral college votes to start, meaning they only need 18 more votes to hit the now magic number of 271 to win the White House. Since Electoral College votes are determined by the number of House and Senate representatives, it bumps the winning number from 270 to 271. It also stands to reason that red states and swing states would end up with less pull in the Electoral College.
In this scenario, Democrats would need to carry two battleground states, while Republicans would have to win at least five. While that’s a feat, it’s not impossible. Mr. Trump swept all seven swing states on the way to his 2024 victory.
An October survey of Canadians by the polling firm Leger found that 64% said that if they could vote in the U.S. election, they would back Ms. Harris, compared to 21% who backed Mr. Trump and 15% who were undecided.
The poll also found Canadians who intended to vote for the Conservative Party in their country’s next election were evenly split between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump if they could vote in the U.S.
For Canadians, Mr. Trump’s idea of making Canada a U.S. state is even less popular than his presidential campaign. An Angus Reid poll found that just 10% of Canadians would support the idea while 90% opposed it.
Mr. Lebo said the small share of Canadians on board with joining the U.S. is likely inflated because of Mr. Trudeau’s unpopularity.
“Once Trudeau is gone and given the rhetoric from the U.S. on tariffs and expansion, I believe that number is much lower than 10%,” he said.
Still, Mr. Trump keeps talking about rebranding Canada as the 51st state, as well as his plans to expand the U.S. by acquiring Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal. He ruled out using U.S. troops to annex Canada, but has threatened to use “economic force.”
“Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would be so much better for national security,” he said.
The president later joked that hockey legend Wayne Gretzky should be the “governor of Canada.”
In a recent closed-door summit with Canadian business and labor leaders, Mr. Trudeau said Mr. Trump’s desire to acquire the Great White North is a “real thing.” He said, in a hot-mic moment captured by the Toronto Sun, that Mr. Trump’s desire to annex Canada was fueled by its vast mineral resources.
Mr. Latham said it was a mystery where Mr. Trump got the idea of adding Canada to the U.S., but it’s an idea the president can’t shake.
“At first, I thought it was a joke. Then I thought it was a bargaining chip with the tariffs, and now I think it’s a delusion because he said it so many times, he can’t back down and doesn’t like to lose,” he said. “Trump is committed now, but he has an off-ramp, which is to stop talking about it. If he does, I think Canadians would reset the status quo.”
• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.