For the new, politically untested Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, it was a seismic, high-profile development: an in-person May 14 meeting with U.S. President Trump, a promise to lift economic sanctions on Damascus, and an endorsement from both Mr. Trump and key Middle East leaders.
But equally important is what the White House believes the 42-year-old Syrian leader can do for the U.S. And some analysts and Syria-watchers believe it could be a lot, most immediately by helping curb Iranian influence across the region.
“The sanctions relief is definitely going to be the first confidence-building measure between Syria and the U.S. My observation is that al-Sharaa himself has an ambition to be an ally to the U.S. in the region. That’s my reading. He seems quite ambitious,” said Muhammad Bakr Ghbeis, a Harvard Medical School doctor who is president of the nongovernmental organization Citizens for a Secure and Safe America, an influential group of highly educated Syrian Americans that has long pushed for political change inside Syria.
Dr. Ghbeis said in an interview that he believes Mr. al-Sharaa — who led the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance that overthrew longtime Syrian dictator and Iranian ally Bashar Assad in a surprise offensive last December — has already proven himself skilled at navigating the complicated Syrian political landscape, which is rife with adversarial stakeholders and rival factions.
How Mr. al-Sharaa and Syria fit into Mr. Trump’s broader strategy in the Middle East will likely come into focus over the next few weeks and months. Despite deep misgivings inside the administration and among key allies such as Israel about Mr. al-Sharaa’s past ties to al Qaeda, the geopolitical calculus for Mr. Trump seems to be that a friendly Syria will help advance U.S. interests, including by potentially taking part of the counterterrorism burden off of U.S. forces.
Already, current and former officials have said, Iran has lost Syria as a conduit through which it could funnel weapons to regional proxies such as Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Iran-backed militias operating in Syria also could come under greater pressure and may not be able to operate in the country as they had over the past few years.
“Continuing to break that [Iranian] alliance … is another thing that Syria can bring to the table,” Dr. Ghbeis said.
After his meeting with Mr. al-Sharra in Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump told reporters that he believes the new Syrian leader can unite and transform a country that’s been ravaged by more than a decade of civil war and Islamic extremism.
“Young attractive guy, tough guy. Strong past, very strong past. Fighter. He’s got a real shot at pulling it together,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. al-Sharaa.
The lifting of economic sanctions, analysts say, would be a monumental step in helping Syria rebuild. Removing some of those sanctions will take an act of Congress, but administration officials said they believe it’s the right thing to do. Adam Boehler, the administration’s special envoy for hostage response, told Fox News Sunday after Mr. Trump’s Middle East trip that the Syrian sanctions were aimed at the Assad regime, which no longer exists.
“Keep in mind, those sanctions were put on a country led by a different individual. And so, continuing something where you have a new leader, you’ve got to refresh and look at it,” he said.
Mr. Trump expressed his desire for Syria to join the 2020 Abraham Accords and normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. Such a move by Syria, traditionally one of the region’s leading antagonists toward the Jewish state, could be a game changer for the Middle East and for America’s network of alliances in the region.
But expanding the Abraham Accords is a long-term proposition, one that has become much more difficult to achieve amid Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has sparked deep anger across the Arab World.
More immediately, there’s a belief that a relatively strong, effective central government in Damascus could help on several fronts. It could pave the way for Mr. Trump to finally pull the nearly 1,000 U.S. troops out of Syria, a goal that dates back to his first term, assuming that an al-Sharaa government is strong enough to keep the Islamic State and other extremist groups at bay.
There are some early signs that the al-Sharra government believes it’s up to the task of managing both the extremist threat and related issues.
In March, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led alliance that has helped the U.S. battle the Islamic State for the past decade, said it would turn over control of the Al-Hol prison camp to the Syrian government. That camp is home to tens of thousands of people, mostly women and children who are family members of suspected Islamic State fighters. Current and former U.S. officials have long warned that the impoverished camp could become a breeding ground for a new generation of extremist fighters.
Dr. Ghbeis, who became a U.S. citizen in 2016 after coming to America on a professional visa before the fighting in Syria began, said the camp can be “managed much better with a Sunni-led government” like the one now headed by Mr. al-Sharaa, rather than the Kurdish-led SDF.
Mr. al-Sharaa’s handling of the handover of the camp and his success or failure in addressing the problems that come with it will be an early test of Mr. Trump’s confidence in the Syrian leader — and of the American president’s new transactional approach to the Middle East.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.