An updated election model shows that former President Donald Trump has a 10-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to the Electoral College.
Significantly, it found that Mr. Trump’s probability of winning Pennsylvania is now 58%, an eight-point increase from where he was after the presidential debate in Philadelphia on Sept. 10.
The J.L. Partners/Daily Mail election model uses the latest poll data, along with years of election results and economic indicators to calculate which candidate has the best chance of winning the White House in November.
The results show that Ms. Harris has the best chance of winning in the popular vote, with 50.8% of the vote currently and a projected 65% chance of finishing the election with more votes.
Mr. Trump sees a 55.2% chance of winning by way of the Electoral College, while Ms. Harris sees a 44.6% chance. The model shows a very small chance of a tie.
The model found that state-by-state numbers show that the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tilt toward Mr. Trump, which gives him an advantage in the election.
The former president has seen a four-point increase since Monday and a nine-point increase since the low after his debate with Ms. Harris on Sept. 10.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” said Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
“If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming weeks,” he said. “September seems to have been Harris’ high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end.”
The election model suggests that Ms. Harris’ advantage in the popular vote gets balanced by the support Mr. Trump sees in some swing states, like Pennsylvania, which the model suggests has moved more towards the former president.
• Mallory Wilson can be reached at mwilson@washingtontimes.com.