NEWS AND OPINION:
Is there something special or unusual about those who voted for former President Donald Trump? Some ponder this phenomenon.
“Major pollsters in business and academia are once again beginning to get nervous about their ability to accurately predict the outcome of elections. And once again, the reason is the unpredictability and unreadability of Donald Trump voters,” wrote Rick Moran, a columnist for PJ Media, in an analysis released Sunday.
“Both 2016 and 2020 were disasters for the polling industry as the most respected pollsters badly undercounted Republican support and particularly, support for Donald Trump. The off-year elections of 2018 and 2022 didn’t have these kinds of problems. In fact, the 2022 midterm election had the most accurate polling in any election since 1998,” Mr. Moran says.
Things go “haywire” when Mr. Trump is part of the equation, he advises.
“Far more than either political party lets on, voters are tribal in their electoral choices. Trump’s ‘tribe’ is still largely invisible to pollsters because they can’t figure out precisely who they are and, more importantly, where they are,” Mr. Moran continues.
“Pollsters are not in the business of reading minds, which makes polling a crap shoot these days. Having a perfect stranger contact you and ask for your opinion about sensitive political and personal subjects like abortion, transgenderism, and race is not going to elicit a lot of cooperation from subjects,” he said.
“We should expect similar off-kilter results in 2024 and in the future until pollsters can dissect the Trump voter more accurately,” Mr. Moran predicted.
A RECOMMENDATION
The challenging situation on the southern U.S. border grows ever more complicated by the day as thousands of migrants attempt to reach American soil.
It’s complicated on the northern border as well.
Consider, for example, a notice released Friday by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol from Caribou, Minn.
“The Kittson County Sheriff’s Office notified Border Patrol Agents assigned to the Pembina and Warroad Stations that they witnessed multiple people walking south from the international border with Canada. Officers also noticed two cars in the area and stopped the vehicles. Border Patrol Agents arrived shortly afterwards and discovered 20 people that had just crossed the border illegally,” the report said.
“The group was comprised of 16 adult males, five adult females and one child with ages ranging from 3 to 43. All 20 of the migrants were determined to be citizens of Mexico and the two drivers were citizens of Guatemala,” it advised.
There are no quick and easy remedies to such complex situations. There are some terse recommendation for solutions out there, though — like this one:
John Daniel Davidson, senior editorial for The Federalist, in a report released Friday, advised that “the only thing that will end the ongoing border crisis is to fix our asylum and immigration laws so they can’t be exploited by illegal immigrants making bogus asylum claims.”
“Programs like Title 42, or even the Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico policy, are stop-gaps at best. To secure the border, we’re going to need laws that mandate a secure border, which means closing the asylum loopholes, immediately deporting those who cross illegally, and building a really high wall,” Mr. Davidson noted.
700 CANDIDATES
Many people pine to run for U.S. president.
“More than 700 presidential candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission,” reports Ballotpedia.org — a helpful online research organization that has revealed the criteria it uses to determine which candidates are both “noteworthy” and viable.
“Candidates have to meet at least one of the following criteria to be identified as noteworthy during the primary election,” the Ballotpedia report said.
Candidates who hold or formerly held elected office as a member of Congress, governor, state executive, state legislator, or mayor of a city with a population of 100,000 or more are also considered “noteworthy” — as are those who meet the polling criteria for at least one presidential primary debate.
Candidates who have previously demonstrated the ability to file for 15 or more primary ballots are considered noteworthy.
A candidate also must be able to financially support campaign operations in a multi-state primary.
Candidates who are notable public figures and receive significant amounts of media attention as a candidate with a chance of affecting the outcome of the nominating contest also receive the “noteworthy” designation.
WHO MADE THE LIST?
So who made the Ballotpedia list of “noteworthy” presidential candidates so far?
Among Democrats, the roster includes President Biden of course — along with environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson.
The list of Republican noteworthy candidates include talk-radio host Larry Elder, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, and former President Donald Trump.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina was also cited because he formed a presidential exploratory committee on April 12.
Mr. Scott, by the way, has revealed he will make a “major announcement on May 22” during an appearance at his alma mater — Charleston Southern University in North Charleston, South Carolina.
POLL DU JOUR
• 56% of U.S. adults say President Biden should not run for reelection in 2024; 83% of Republicans, 64% of independents and 32% of Democrats agree.
• 54% of men and 58% of women also agree.
• 27% overall say Mr. Biden should run for reelection in 2024; 13% of Republicans,17% of independents and 51% of Democrats agree.
• 31% of men and 24% of women also agree.
• 17% are not sure about the issue; 3% of Republicans, 19% of independents and 17% of Democrats agree.
• 15% of men and 19% of women also agree.
SOURCE: A Yahoo News poll of 1,584 U.S. adults conducted May 5-8.
• Follow Jennifer Harper on Twitter @HarperBulletin.
• Jennifer Harper can be reached at jharper@washingtontimes.com.