President Trump has not only stopped but reversed the Biden border surge, according to early Census Bureau data that suggests hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants have dropped out of the workforce and departed the country.
Preliminary calculations by the Center for Immigration Studies, using the Census’s monthly survey, show that the number of immigrants in the labor force dropped by about 600,000 from January to May, and the overall number of immigrants in the U.S. fell by 957,000 over that same period.
“It looks like there’s been a Trump effect on the number of illegal immigrants in the country, based on the best data that we have,” said Steven A. Camarota, the lead author of the study.
He now figures there are 14.8 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., which is a million fewer than he estimated as of January, when President Biden turned the reins over to Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump is on a full-court press to usher illegal immigrants out of the U.S.
Deportation officers have been unshackled from Biden-era restrictions and told to boost arrests to unprecedented levels. Homeland Security is also urging people to “self-deport” before they are caught.
Meanwhile, the border has been shut down to illegal immigration to a degree not seen in modern times, so there aren’t newcomers to replace those who leave.
Agriculture businesses have complained that their largely illegal immigrant workforce isn’t showing up, threatening America’s farming industry. Business groups have warned of broader workforce issues.
But Mr. Camarota said the drop in illegal immigrants is an opportunity for those who had been competing against the illegal immigrants for jobs.
“I think that this is good news particularly for less-educated Americans who are likely to see a rise in wages,” he said. “Maybe it’ll even be helpful in dragging some of these non-college-educated men who are working age back into the labor force.”
The last four years have seen a major upheaval in the illegal immigrant population.
At the start of 2021, as Mr. Trump gave way to Mr. Biden, there were 10.2 million illegal immigrants. That grew steadily to reach 15.8 million in January, Mr. Camarota said, before slipping to 14.8 million now.
CIS data comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, the monthly collection of data that’s used to calculate unemployment rates. It doesn’t ask about legal status but does track place of birth and citizenship, which allows demographers to estimate illegal immigrant numbers.
Mr. Camarota said the recent months of data show a decline of a million people in that foreign-born population, and it has come entirely among those who haven’t naturalized. That is consistent with a major decline in illegal immigration, he said.
The data also shows a drop of slightly more than 1 million in the number of noncitizens from Latin America. That population largely overlaps with the illegal immigrant population.
Mr. Camarota called that strong evidence that the Trump effect is real.
He offered some caveats to the data. It’s possible, for example, that immigrants haven’t left in such large numbers but have become more reluctant to answer census questionnaires. Or, when they do answer, they may not admit being foreign-born.
Social Security this week released its latest projections, including a deep dive on demographics.
It said the country has come through a period with startlingly high illegal immigration and temporary visitors, which it groups together.
Social Security figured there were about 690,000 of them who came in 2020, though many also left, leaving a net increase of about 275,000.
By 2022 more than 2 million came, and 1.5 million stayed. In 2023 it was 2.7 million who came, and 1.9 million who stayed. Last year it was 2.6 million arrivals and 1.8 million who stayed.
Social Security assumed little change this year, projecting 2 million will arrive this year and 1.2 million will stay.
The agency figured things will drop to about 1.4 million arrivals in 2026 and beyond, with an annual net of about 500,000.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.