CAIRO — In the vacuum left in Gaza by Israel’s ongoing decimation of Hamas, an unlikely power broker has emerged in Rafah, near the Egyptian border: Yasser Abu Shabab — a former smuggler with a criminal past.
His militia, drawn mainly from the Tarabin tribe, now patrols former Hamas strongholds and distributes aid, apparently with Israel’s blessing.
The so-called “Popular Forces,” made up of 100 to 300 fighters, operates between Rafah and Khan Younis, patrolling roads and securing aid convoys.
In a live interview last month with Israel’s Arabic-language broadcaster Makan, the militia leader said his group receives support from the Israeli military and can operate freely in Israeli-controlled areas.
He also claimed there is coordination with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, though he said PA officials keep the cooperation out of public view. His Facebook page denounces Hamas and calls for Palestinian unity.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly acknowledged arming anti-Hamas factions, and Mr. Abu Shabab appears to be among the local actors benefiting from this policy.
His operations in southern Gaza reflect a broader Israeli strategy to empower tribal and non-Hamas forces, and some observers believe the Palestinian Authority may also be quietly backing him as a tool to weaken Hamas’s grip — though officials in Ramallah have yet to confirm any support publicly.
“Yasser Abu Shabab and his group represent one of the most viable options currently available to end Hamas’ rule,” said Hani Nasser, a 27-year-old grocery store clerk in Rafah. “The Palestinian Authority, as well as Mohammed Dahlan’s faction, has shown little genuine concern for our suffering. If Hamas remains in power, it could once again drag us into terrorist actions like those of October 7, plunging us into yet another cycle of endless war.”
Tribal differences with Hamas have sharpened during the war. In March, families from Gaza’s southern governorates issued a rare joint statement condemning both Hamas and Israel — accusing Hamas of triggering the conflict and Israel of indiscriminately targeting civilians.
“Hamas bears responsibility for the continued aggression and its absence from the scene in the Gaza Strip,” the statement read. The message was clear: Hamas no longer speaks for all Palestinians.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces are still battling underground.
Earlier this week, the Israeli military said it destroyed a 1.24-mile tunnel beneath Khan Younis and several shafts in central Gaza and Rafah.
Still, only about 25% of Hamas’s vast tunnel network has been eliminated, officials say.
Tensions surged last week after Hamas released a video showing hostage Evyatar David digging his own grave, fueling public outrage and calls for a ceasefire.
Mr. Netanyahu has pledged to shift strategy toward full reoccupation of Gaza. But Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir warned the move could provoke executions of Israeli hostages.
The clash exposed widening rifts within Israel’s leadership. Far-right figures like Itamar Ben Gvir and Yair Netanyahu accused Mr. Zamir of disloyalty, while Defense Minister Israel Katz sided with the prime minister.
Opposition leaders warned that the infighting was undermining morale and strategic clarity.
As Gaza fragments, Israel’s political leadership appears equally fractured — split between Mr. Netanyahu’s camp, military commanders and the far-right coalition. The internal struggle increasingly resembles a tribal contest of its own.
On Friday, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, visited a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid site in Rafah with U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, calling it a fact-finding mission for a proposed American-led relief plan.
The GHF, a U.S.-based aid organization created to take over for displaced and oftentimes discredited U.N. operations in Gaza, has drawn fierce local and international criticism since its founding earlier this year — and last week’s visit prompted more of the same.
After Mr. Witkoff left Gaza, the Supreme Authority for Tribal Affairs, a coalition of Gaza clans, condemned the GHF model as “humiliating” and “soaked in blood.”
The statement accused the U.S. and Israel of bypassing Palestinian institutions and using aid to exert control.
Unaffiliated with Hamas, the tribal council has positioned itself as an independent Palestinian force resisting externally imposed governance.
Their critique echoed broader resistance.
The U.N. and more than 170 aid groups have refused to cooperate with the U.S.- and Israel-backed GHF, citing unsafe conditions and over 1,000 Palestinian deaths near aid distribution points — mostly killed by Israeli fire.
The day after his Rafah stop, Mr. Witkoff met hostage families in Tel Aviv and pitched an “all-or-nothing” peace plan that reportedly would circumvent Israeli authority.
Hamas dismissed the Rafah trip as “a staged show” and reaffirmed its commitment to armed resistance.
But with traditional Palestinian bodies weakened, tribal and local actors like Mr. Abu Shabab are gaining traction.
The Tarabin — spanning Gaza, Israel’s Negev, and Egypt’s Sinai — were once central to the tunnel economy, smuggling food, fuel and weapons under the blockade. Despite repeated crackdowns by Egypt and Israel, the networks endured, driven by economic desperation and tribal ties.
Now, Mr. Abu Shabab’s fighters are repurposing those networks to secure aid convoys and enforce order. The tribal leader says he’s driven by personal loss, claiming more than 50 relatives, including his brother, have been killed by Hamas.
Branded a traitor by Hamas, he has requested international protection, warning that a ceasefire could leave him exposed.
His vision for postwar Gaza includes managing the Rafah crossing and reopening trade with Egypt and neighboring Arab states.
“The rise of the Abu Shabab group in southern Gaza is the result of extraordinary wartime conditions,” said Aziz Shaath, a political analyst based in Deir al-Balah.
“Israel has attempted to cultivate tribal and local leadership alternatives to both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Still, it has failed to elevate any credible Palestinian civil body capable of managing humanitarian aid or leading Gaza in the postwar phase.”
Mr. Shaath added: “Israel’s cooperation with Abu Shabab appears aimed at sowing further chaos in Gaza and deepening the crisis, with the ultimate goal of dismantling Hamas’s rule while creating the illusion that viable Palestinian alternatives exist. Nonetheless, the Abu Shabab phenomenon remains a temporary and reactive development. It is likely to fade once the war ends and Palestinian factions agree on a unified committee to govern Gaza.”
He emphasized that while Mr. Abu Shabab may maintain influence in the absence of formal governance, his support base is narrow. “I don’t believe any Arab state has an interest in backing him. His support comes primarily from Israel, which seeks to destabilize Gaza. Suppose there is any other party backing Abu Shabab. In that case, it may be the Palestinian Authority, which could see him as a tool to undermine Hamas’s rule and serve as a transitional alternative.
“The group poses no real threat to the Palestinian political system,” Mr. Shaath concluded. “It is likely to disappear once its functional role ends. No future governing body tasked with administering Gaza is expected to accommodate or integrate the group. All Palestinian actors understand its ties to Israel and view its role as circumstantial and short-lived.”
Samer Sinijlawi, a Palestinian political activist in Jerusalem, echoed the skepticism.
“The group initially emerged through acts of chaos, theft and looting, gradually growing bolder over time,” he said. “It may have received limited support from certain Israeli actors who saw its presence as serving their interests. Nevertheless, it is likely to vanish as quickly as it appeared, without leaving a meaningful impact on the balance of power in Gaza.
“As for Yasser Abu Shabab, he lacks the mindset required to build an alternative governing body,” Mr. Sinijlawi added. “His level of thinking does not equip him to devise a coherent strategy or implement it effectively.”
He suggested that a new political entity could eventually emerge in Gaza, but it wouldn’t come from Mr. Abu Shabab’s camp.
“If Israel were to open the door, an alternative entity could potentially emerge — one that belongs neither to Fatah nor Hamas,” Mr. Sinijlawi said. “And such an entity would not necessarily be subordinate to or cooperating with Israel.”
With UNRWA [United Nations Relief and Works Agency] sidelined after decades of providing health care, education and food aid, and the Palestinian Authority absent since being ousted by Hamas in 2007, Gaza remains leaderless.
The current war has crippled UNRWA’s operations. Dozens of its staff have been killed, hundreds of its facilities damaged or destroyed, and key donors have suspended contributions amid accusations that some U.N. staffers were linked to the October 7 attack on Israel that led to the war.
Egypt — backed by the Arab League — has proposed a technocratic government to oversee reconstruction, disarm militant factions and coordinate aid under international supervision.
But the plan remains stalled, leaving power in the hands of whoever has guns and bullets.
Mohammed Dahlan’s UAE-backed Democratic Reform Current condemned Mr. Abu Shabab in June as a criminal actor.
Yet Emirati charities have expanded their aid operations in Gaza, signaling Gulf ambitions in shaping the post-Hamas landscape.
Some U.S. and Arab officials see Mr. Dahlan as a possible transitional figure.
Meanwhile, Mr. Abu Shabab continues to consolidate control. He has positioned himself as a would-be governor, staking a claim to authority in southern Gaza—even without official recognition.
“The Abu Shabab group represents a transitional phase. If they succeed — backed by popular support — in toppling Hamas’ rule, there may be an opportunity for independent figures within the Palestinian Authority to take over the administration of Gaza following reconstruction and institutional reform,” said Mr. Nasseer, the Rafah store clerk.
“However, they cannot govern Gaza in the long term or provide basic services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure,” he said. “Their presence should therefore be understood as a temporary phase, nothing more.”