For the nation’s armed services, attracting a few good men — and women — isn’t going to cut it.
The Pentagon is scrambling to fill a growing chasm in the recruitment ranks that next year will result in America’s military being the smallest it has been since before the start of World War II.
The situation was dire in 2023 and senior military officials will only say they are, at best, “cautiously optimistic” about 2024.
“I’m going to say we’re optimistic,” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said last week. “But, you know, we know that this continues to be a challenge for a multitude of reasons.”
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “has said we didn’t get into this problem overnight and it’s not going to be solved overnight,” Gen. Ryder said, saying it put more of an onus on the military branches to be “very active and creative in looking at how we can communicate with the public that we serve.”
The Defense Department says that only the Marine Corps and the Space Force — by far the smallest of the U.S. military services — made their recruiting goals in the last fiscal year. Surveys find that just 23% of young Americans between 17 and 24 even qualify to join the military, due to weight issues, past drug use, or having mental and physical health problems. Even fewer have expressed a genuine enthusiasm to serve.
Under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Biden on Dec. 21, the number of active-duty military troops will shrink to just over 1.2 million. It’s anyone’s guess if the Defense Department will find enough military recruits next year to fill even those more modest targets.
“There is strong bipartisan concern that the military services continue to struggle to meet their recruiting goals,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, told a phalanx of senior recruiting chiefs from the various military branches at a Dec. 6 hearing of the Senate Armed Services’ personnel subcommittee.
It’s certainly not a matter of money. The 2024 NDAA authorizes some $886.3 billion for national defense, an increase of $28 billion over 2023 levels.
But even with plenty of money and “bipartisan concern” from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the Army, Navy, and Air Force all failed to accomplish their recruiting mission in the fiscal year that ended in September. One big challenge: hitting the target numbers without diluting the standards for who qualifies to wear the uniform.
“I’m mindful of how challenging an environment this is and want to publicly give credit to our professional recruiters and all our Marines who uphold our rigorous stands 24/7,” Gen. Eric M. Smith, the Marine Corps Commandant, said on social media after the numbers were released.
Even so, the services have stepped up some tried-and-true methods for attracting new recruits and have still fallen short, including Navy financial incentive package for would-be sailors that was worth a record-high $140,000. Policies on tattoos and facial hair have been relaxed for some services, and the Army famously resurrected its storied “Be All You Can Be” marketing campaign from 40 years ago hoping to reach a Gen Z demographic.
Earlier this month, the Pentagon told the House Armed Services Committee that the services were more than 40,000 recruits short of making their annual goal. It was the largest gap since the end of the draft more than 50 years ago.
And it isn’t just the active-duty ranks that have been thinned. The Air Force Reserve, for example, attracted just 5,288 of the 7,765 new enlisted airmen it needed, Military.com reported, some 30% below the goal.
A relatively strong economy and low unemployment figures mean young adults, the military‘s target audience, have more options to consider, Ashish Vazirani, the Defense Department‘s acting undersecretary for personnel and readiness, told House lawmakers.
“And the impact of the [COVID-19] pandemic on our recruiting model — which relies heavily on in-person recruiter access to high schools — and communication engagement was significant,” Mr. Vazirani said.
He pointed out that more than 75% of America’s youth do not qualify for military service without some form of a waiver, including more than one in 10 who don’t meet the grade because they are overweight.
“While these factors explain part of our deficit in recruiting, they do not explain all of it,” Mr. Vazirani said. “We believe that our recruiting challenge is more profound, more structural and longer-term than any of us would like.”
Reputational hits
Compared to other major institutions, the American public still holds the armed forces generally in high esteem. But the admiration is wavering, in part because of factors such as the chaotic ending to the failed war in Afghanistan, increased polarization of the public, and concerns about heightened politicization in the military, according to a recent study by the RAND Corporation think tank.
While more than 50% of Americans say they would discourage a young person close to them from enlisting in the military, more than 60% said they would support a young person’s decision to become an officer by attending a service academy or signing up for ROTC in college, the RAND researchers found.
Some GOP lawmakers blamed the Pentagon’s anemic recruiting numbers on what they say is the Biden administration’s politicization of the Pentagon, in particular a misplaced focus on divisive identity politics within the ranks.
“The Department of Defense must put at least as much effort into solving the recruiting crisis as it has into other initiatives like extremism, diversity, equity, inclusion, and abortion,” said Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “At worst, they dissuade young people from enlisting. They suggest to the American people that the military has a problem with diversity and extremism.”
Service members and military veterans on the Reddit news and discussion site said the reasons recruiting was not up to par in 2023 and likely won’t improve much in 2024 range from poor living conditions in the barracks to toxic unit-level leadership.
“The military can’t hide behind its censorship anymore. Sweeping the bad stuff under the rug and reeling in unsuspecting 17- and 18-year-olds isn’t as feasible now as it was before social media and the internet,” a Reddit poster said.
Another commentator said even unskilled laborers have it better in the private sector being offered higher wages and better benefits packages than those available in the military. “There’s a huge shortage of guys in the trades right now and companies are shelling out to get workers,” he said. “It’s better than getting yelled at in the middle of Oklahoma.”
Long-term problem
Maj. Gen. Johnny K. Davis, head of Army Recruiting Command, said the current recruiting crisis affecting all branches of the military didn’t appear overnight and won’t be resolved quickly.
“We will not lower standards. We will not sacrifice quality for the sake of quantity,” Gen. Davis said.
Some Army recruiting initiatives are showing real promise, Gen. Davis said. That includes the “Future Soldier Prep Course” which aims to help potential recruits meet the physical fitness and academic standards required to begin basic training. He said 14,000 people have graduated the course with 95% going on to finish boot camp and become soldiers.
“We’re seeing momentum, and we’ll continue to build upon it,” Gen. Davis said.
The military isn’t the only institution to find itself at cross purposes with young Americans. Undergraduate college enrollment declined by 15% between 2010 and 2021 with most of the drop happening before COVID-19 and national service programs like the Peace Corps also have not recovered to pre-pandemic staffing levels, Mr. Vazirani said.
“While the military is not alone in navigating these difficult trends, we have some unique considerations,” he said. “In 1995, 40% of U.S. youth ages 16 to 24 had a parent who served in the military. But by 2022, only 12% had a parent who served, and that has led to a disconnect between the military and a large share of society.”
Like the other services, the Navy also missed its personnel goal last year. Rear Adm. Alexis T Walker, the service’s top recruiter, said Navy officials will continue to face a challenging environment in 2024. The Navy is placing more recruiters in the field and has borrowed an idea from the Army by instituting a Future Sailor Preparatory Course at its Recruit Training Command near Chicago.
The Navy is also launching a marketing campaign to target adult influencers in the lives of young people.
“Today, our advertising remains near 100% digital, resulting in a 30% increase in national leads in taking the message to where our future sailors are operating, which is online,” Adm. Walker said.
Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Defense Department‘s spokesman, said he also was optimistic the military‘s personnel situation could rebound in 2024. With COVID-19 restrictions now mostly a thing of the past, recruiters can conduct face-to-face negotiations with their target audience, he said.
“The services continue to be very active and creative in looking at how we can communicate with the public that we serve,” Gen. Ryder said. “We didn’t get into this problem overnight and it’s not going to be solved overnight.”
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.