U.S. evangelicals opting to use warehouse church buildings and identify as “nondenominational” has prompted some Christians to wonder if they are the future of American Protestantism.
“This is clearly the largest trend inside American Christianity,” said Ed Stetzer, dean of the Leadership and Christian Ministry at Biola University’s Talbot School of Theology and former head of the evangelical Lifeway Research group. “The trend, put simply, is toward large nondenominational Protestant churches, evangelical churches.”
“Every single denomination that keeps records, and that’s pretty much all of them, is in decline,” said Steve Harmon, professor of historical theology at Gardner-Webb University in North Carolina.
About a third of the U.S. population identifies as Protestants, whose many denominations account for more than 140 million people.
Once a marginal category, the nondenominational label represents a significant share of U.S. Protestants. In the early 1970s, less than 3% of American Protestants claimed to be nondenominational, according to the General Social Survey. In 2022, that figure climbed to nearly 35%.
And over the past decade, the number of nondenominational churches has surged by nearly 9,000 congregations, according to the U.S. Religion Census.
Religion experts say that’s startling as the number of overall believers has shrunk over the years. Mr. Stetzer says there’s a strong correlation between the two statistics.
“The percentage of practicing Christians is declining, but those who remain tend to create a more serious expression of their faith,” Mr. Stetzer said. “It’s kind of like a reduction sauce — as the numbers decrease, the intensity increases.
“Millennials and Gen Z Christians, in particular, are showing signs of greater commitment, even as they navigate a cultural landscape where being religious sometimes comes with a price,” he said.
To some, a “serious expression” of faith might not include the fog machines, drum kits and praise teams often used in these churches, but they have been effective in attracting young members.
Mr. Harmon says young people have displayed an increased sincere interest in finding the right church, as opposed to simply following the expectations of their parents.
And where denominational expectations and theology once helped determine belief, the new trend focuses on finding a fitting social scene or enjoyable liturgy, experts say.
“There is this movement of younger evangelicals experiencing dissatisfaction with their own evangelical tradition and finding a sense of historic connection liturgy formation through what happens in historically grounded liturgies, there is an attraction to that among young people,” Mr. Harmon said.
“But at the same time there are fewer attachments to particular denominations among Protestants,” he added. “So somebody who grew up in one church tradition, by now may have been a part of different church traditions, some of them non-denominational.”
Loneliness could be a major driver of the nondenominational trend. In May 2023, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy declared loneliness a public health epidemic. By early 2024, the American Psychiatric Association’s Healthy Minds Monthly Poll revealed that 30% of adults felt lonely at least weekly over the past year, with 10% experiencing loneliness daily.
Adults aged 18-34 reported higher rates, with nearly one-third feeling lonely daily or several times a week. Single adults were significantly more affected, with 39% experiencing weekly loneliness compared to 22% of married adults.
“This is why a young Christian adult now is probably going to look for a community where they find authentic community,” Mr. Harmon said.
The decline of denominations
Traditional denominationalism has dropped off as its nondenominational counterpart has grown.
The United Methodist Church has seen its membership plummet from 11 million in the late 1960s to less than 5 million today. Similarly, the Episcopal Church now reports only 400,000 attendees on “a good Sunday,” according to data compiled by Ryan Burge, a religion statistician and associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University.
The decline is not limited to mainline denominations: Most evangelical groups have experienced stagnation as younger generations seek more flexible, less hierarchical expressions of faith.
“Denomination is sometimes seen as a barrier to unity with other Christians, who may have different ways of understanding what it means to be church,” Mr. Harmon said. “Nondenominational churches are freer to incorporate gifts from various traditions, reflecting what ecumenical theology calls receptive ecumenism — the recognition that each tradition has unique gifts shaped by its historical journey, which can be shared and received across the broader Christian community.”
Cultural and institutional drivers
Several factors contribute to the nondenominational surge, including what Mr. Stetzer calls a national “vibe shift” impacting American religion.
“The rise of the ’nones’ [people with no religious affiliation] has actually paused over the last two or three years,” Mr. Stetzer said. “For example, young men in Gen Z are going to church at a higher level than Gen Z women. That’s the first time in American history we’ve seen that.”
Increasingly, within Gen Z, only 34% of men describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated — compared with nearly 40% of women, according to a survey last year by the Survey Center on American Life at the American Enterprise Institute.
It’s the community-oriented expectations that are particularly attractive to young men, says Mr. Burge, who was also a Baptist pastor for many years. His church, he said, closed its doors in some part because of the growth the non-denominational church down the road experienced.
“You know, the churches that tend to decline are the more liberal mainline churches because they don’t ask you to change your life that much,” said Mr. Burge. “And I think that, like, the reason that the nondenoms are doing well is because they want their church to become the center of your life — like your social life.
“They have activities almost every day. There are activities for every age group you know, young and old,” he said. “They want you to have all your friends … be members of the church, and your parents and your and your children go to the church and to create that sort of, like, insular community.”
Young men especially want that sort of striving in their lives, he argues.
“I think young people, generally speaking, everything in life is fairly easy for them, you know, especially if you went to college and got a good job and everything kind of worked out for you — the American Dream stuff,” Mr. Burge told The Times.
“For [them], it might be like, I want to work out every day, or I want to be a weightlifter, or I want to be a marathon runner, or I might want to be part of a religious tradition that’s tough that says: ‘You know, you can’t have sex before marriage, and you should give 10% of your money away.’ Like, let’s make it difficult,” he said.
It’s a shift that aligns with broader sociopolitical trends, as young men increasingly lean conservative while young women tend to lean progressive.
Mr. Stetzer, the Biola professor, pointed to an unexpected surge in Bible sales, indicating a renewed interest in scripture among certain demographics. “It’s all part of the vibe shift,” he said.
After secular fire burned the religious dross, America, it turns out, is more religiously consistent than other parts of the Western world were after similar religious downturns.
“It’s left America with a much more resilient religious population than you see in Western Europe or East Asia or other developed countries,” said Ross Douthat, New York Times columnist and author of “Belief: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,” at a seminar event last year.
Cultural shifts toward individualism have made Americans less inclined to align with rigid institutions — societal heavies often rocked by abuse scandals, financial misappropriation and other improprieties that cause broader mistrust, researchers said.
In 2022, the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), the nation’s largest Protestant denomination, with nearly 13 million members, was rattled by a sexual abuse scandal. A recent 205-page report released by the SBC names hundreds of Baptist leaders and members accused or convicted of child sexual abuse, prompting one former top official to call it a “Southern Baptist apocalypse.”
“As a denomination, [the SBC] has been in statistical freefall for two decades,” Baptist News reported last year.
And some experts say the growth of nondenominational Christianity mirrors broader cultural trends toward decentralization, a phenomenon also evident in American politics. They draw parallels to the grassroots rise of President Trump within the Republican Party, suggesting that both movements reflect a bottom-up approach to leadership and organization.
Mr. Burge, the researcher and former pastor, said that with independent churches, the creep of corruption is limited to the church itself.
“In nondenom churches, it’s not just the institution, it’s about the spirituality. You’ve heard the slogan: ’It’s not religion, it’s a relationship,’” he said. “That kind of language is endemic in nondenominational churches and appeals to young people who feel like institutions have let them down.”
When Mr. Burge started the church he led for more than a decade, he said his cards were all on the table — he had nothing to hide.
“God called me to bring eight families into my basement to do Bible study once a week,” he said. “I was not ordained or licensed, nor given permission by any hierarchy. I was given permission by God. Institutions got my way. God, you know, got me here. I think that that kind of language is very appealing for young people, especially now. That’s why they’re successful — because they’re being anti-institutional.”
The future of American Protestantism
As the religious landscape evolves, Mr. Harmon says this isn’t the end of the road for traditional denominations — but they’ll have to change tack to stay alive.
“I’m not sure that denominations are going to grow numerically,” he said. “They may find that they need to join forces with other similar kinds of church traditions and share resources, whether they be for theological education, missionary endeavors, or Christian education programs.”
This vision points to a future in which collaboration and resource sharing between declining denominations could reshape institutionalized religion. This adaptability could prove critical as religious institutions seek to remain relevant in a quickly shifting society.
Mr. Burge said the communitarian strategy that has bolstered nondenominational congregations is one that denominational churches should consider.
“Evangelism has largely failed — the data shows that most efforts yield very few long-term conversions,” he said. “Instead, why not try another approach? Just say, ’Hey, come hang out with us at this fellowship thing we’re having this weekend.”
Sometimes church attendance isn’t about theology or salvation, Mr. Burge insisted.
“It’s about scratching the itch of loneliness, helping people find community,” he added. “For folks sitting in the pews, they might not be sure about the whole Jesus thing, but they stay because their friends are here, and they enjoy being around them. That’s what makes it worth it. That’s what keeps them there.”
• Emma Ayers can be reached at eayers@washingtontimes.com.